192 
FXUS64 KMRX 011832
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
232 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026
 
- Very hot conditions are expected through the rest of the week with 
highs reaching well into the 90s and heat index values exceeding 100 
for most places

- Temperatures gradually moderate some through the weekend with a
  return of at least isolated showers and storms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Currently, a near 5,940m ridge is centered to our west with high 
pressure in place across the eastern U.S. The anomalous ridge and 
lingering moisture will continue the current heat wave. A slow 
eastward shift of the ridge Wednesday and Thursday will push 
temperatures even further into the 90s, potentially near 100 degrees 
for parts of the southern Valley. Heat index values will reach or 
exceed 100 for most places with 105 possible in some southern areas 
Wednesday or Thursday. Little relief from clouds or diurnal 
convection can be expected because of strong subsidence and limited 
coverage outside of the mountains. For reference, here are the 
record highs through the next 3 days. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge     
09-02   100(2011)      98(2011)       96(1943)       99(1953)       
09-03   100(1954)      98(2011)       96(2011)       99(2011)       
09-04   102(1954)      101(1954)      99(1954)       100(1954)      

By Friday, the pattern begins to shift slightly as an upper low 
tracks into the northeastern U.S., leading to suppression of the 
ridge and more northwesterly flow aloft. This will decrease 
temperatures and lead to a slight uptick in rain chances, 
potentially outside of the mountains. Moisture will increase by 
Saturday, along with a frontal boundary drifting down from the 
northeast, further increasing chances for showers and storms. The 
front will remain near or just to our east as troughing digs through 
Labor Day. This will keep a more eastward focus on isolated showers 
and storms, but most places will likely stay dry. Temperatures will 
be moderated lower in the 90s but still above normal. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR through the remainder of today for all sites. The primary
concern will be the development of fog overnight, primarily for
KTRI, with MVFR and IFR visibilities possible. There is the
potential for brief reductions below IFR vsby if fog does form and
impact the terminal. Otherwise, both KTYS and KCHA remain VFR
throughout with only SCT mid to high level clouds. Winds remain
light and variable at or below 5 mph. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  96  74  98 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BH


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