645
FXUS64 KMRX 021053
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
653 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
- Very hot conditions are expected through the rest of the week
with highs reaching well into the 90s and heat index values
exceeding 100 for most places. Take frequent breaks and drink
plenty of water when outdoors this week!
- Temperatures gradually moderate some through the weekend with a
return of at least isolated showers and storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
No significant changes with the weather forecast this morning. A 595
dm H500 ridge will remain parked over Tennessee the next couple of
days, dominating the regional weather pattern and inflicting another
couple days of high heat to southern Appalachia. Temperatures both
today and tomorrow will be flirting with daily record highs as the
table below shows, and while Friday is still oppressively hot, we
diverge slightly from the more extreme daily records. I have decided
to issue a heat advisory for the southern valley today. We can get
into particulars about ASOS vs lesser instrument veracity on
dewpoints, but the bottom line is its going to be hot today, with
today and tomorrow being up there for hottest days of the year.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
09-02 100(2011) 98(2011) 96(1943) 99(1953)
09-03 100(1954) 98(2011) 96(2011) 99(2011)
09-04 102(1954) 101(1954) 99(1954) 100(1954)
By this weekend the upper ridge center will be moved off to the
west, with a new center forming over the Great Plains as the weekend
progresses. This is in response to a digging trough over the
northeastern U.S. This pattern puts us back into a northwest flow
type regime AND will allow the temperatures to edge down slightly.
Still hot, but we'll stop flirting with the daily records over the
weekend. The other consequence is the present moisture will be
allowed to return isolated to scattered thunderstorms back into the
forecast, even outside of the terrain, over the weekend.
Heading into next week, there's still some uncertainty over the
position and strength of the ridge. The Euro and its complements
(EPS and EC-AIFS) all build the ridge back towards us midweek next
week. This would likely return very hot temperatures. The GFS and
GEFS are more muted, with a weaker upper ridge centered over the
southern US. We would still be hot, but maybe not pushing as hot as
the Euro world. As a fun side note, Chattanooga will be very close
to its consecutive 90F day record by late week next week. Given the
patterns in the long range guidance, there's a fair chance
Chattanooga will match the consecutive record, though we are still
over a week out from that. With summer refusing to let go, remember
to drink plenty of water and reduce exposure to hot temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
On-going fog and low ceiling at TRI should improve over the next
hour or two. This will lead to VFR conditions and light winds this
afternoon and evening. With no significant change in the general
pattern, additional fog is possible at TRI once again tomorrow
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 100 76 100 75 / 0 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 94 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
Sequatchie-West Polk.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KRS
--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)
|
General Weather-related Discussi... 
