156 
FXUS64 KMRX 081839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Another cold front by Monday, but only light rainfall amounts 
  expected. Potential for patchy frost into Tuesday morning.

- No significant weather concerns otherwise over the next week,
  more low to medium rain chances next Wednesday, mild
  temperatures for mid May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Not a lot of rain in the next 7 days in total QPF, so good news for 
those who love drought. The HRRR is sporting a few low-topped 
showers on Saturday, but overall ensemble blends aren't as 
supportive. Could see a lucky isolated shower or two. As we head 
into the weekend, yet another longwave trough over the Eastern US 
helps to kick a cold front down into the Mid South. Showers, and 
potentially a couple thunderstorms, will traverse the area Sunday 
night into Monday morning. Unfortunately, while PWATs will be 
elevated as expected ahead of the front, there's no real steady 
surge of moisture laden air northwards, and relatively weak dynamics 
will combine to only bring light rainfall to the whole of the 
region. For those that didn't receive a lot of rain (Knoxville and 
north), don't expect anything truly beneficial. Marginal shear and 
even more marginal CAPE profiles aren't supportive of any strong 
thunderstorm threat, either.

Temperatures through all of this are generally mild to cool to mild 
again. Patchy frost is possible across northern TN into southwestern 
VA and the mountains Tuesday morning after the cold front brings 
cooler air in. A gentle warming trend takes place thereafter.

By mid to late next week, another longwave trough enters the Great 
Lakes region of the Eastern US, with a vorticity lobe orbiting 
through the southern extent passing through. This is a northern 
system, and overall light QPF fields in the deterministic guidance 
lends credence to the NBM's pitiful rainfall amounts. A longer range 
outlook from our national center depicts continued below average 
precipitation outlooks in the 6-10 day range and extended periods.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR likely through the next 24 hours. There's a low probability for 
more fog tomorrow morning, but not confident enough to include it in 
any TAF site, even KTRI. A few gusts across the area tomorrow
midday, up to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  80  58  83 /  10  10   0  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  78  55  82 /   0  10  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       50  79  54  82 /   0  10   0  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  74  50  79 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


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