322 
FXUS64 KMRX 091054 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Mostly dry weekend, with increasing rain chances associated with
  a cold front late Sunday into Monday. Not expecting strong or 
  even severe storms.

- Another potential frontal passage brings a chance of rain 
  around mid to late next week.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and
  southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by 
longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the 
west. Towards the end of the forecast period though, synoptics 
appear to change with ridging moving back in from the west. Just 
outside of the forecast period, temperatures potentially warming 
above normal at the beginning of next weekend. For the forecast 
period, our area will generally exhibit quasizonal to northwesterly 
flow. It'll be mostly dry today with a very low outside chance of a 
shower for the southern CWA this morning and SW Virginia this 
afternoon.

After a brief recovery of temperatures expected this weekend, a cold 
front will barrel through sometime early Monday. This looks like 
just a low-end rainfall with maybe a quarter of an inch, at best. 
QPF trends have turned downward. Some may not even see rainfall at 
all. The only real thing going for this system will be the bulk 
shear in place, everything else is either too weak or non-existent 
for any strong to severe storm potential. We won't really get much 
moisture return before the arrival of the system and the timing 
doesn't really allow anything surface based. The area with the best 
chance of thunder will be the southern plateau and valley, closer to 
the better dynamics, as depicted by the SPC Outlook.

Temperatures markedly cooler Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of 
the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians and SW Virginia may 
see possible frost Tuesday morning, where temperatures are forecast 
to be in the upper 30s so far. An element that may work against it 
will be winds possibly still coming down from somewhat breezy 
northerly winds earlier in the day Monday.

Much of the rest of the week will be dry with temperatures warming 
Tuesday and afterward. Although, a low pressure center under a 
shortwave trough traversing from central Canada, may bring some 
light rain to northern portions of the area around mid to late week. 
Dry after with northwesterly flow and a ridge on our doorstep from 
the west. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Clouds at CHA will be near the MVFR/VFR margins this morning, but
are expected to lift/scatter by the afternoon. Some broken VFR
cigs will be around TYS and TRI today, with winds around 10 kt.
Mostly clear conditions and light/calm winds will return tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  57  84  60 /   0   0  10  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  55  82  57 /   0   0   0  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  53  82  56 /  10   0   0  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              74  50  79  53 /   0   0   0  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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