Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 05 2026

...T.D. Edouard will bring flash flooding and excessive rainfall risk over
parts of Eastern Texas into portions of the Southeast through Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms and Flash Flooding risk over portions of the
Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Upper Midwest...

...Dangerous heat continues over central and southern Plains and south,
while building into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic by late week...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to weaken as it
moves over Eastern Texas and into Northeastern Texas by Thursday morning.
Lingering tropical moisture and a residual low-level circulation will
promote scattered showers and thunderstorms. With saturated soils from
previous rainfall, additional rainfall may lead to a continuation for
flooding concerns across portions of eastern Texas. A High Risk (level
4/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for portions of southeast Texas
through early Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. On Friday, the
system continues to weaken but warm tropical moisture will support
thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Therefore, isolated
flooding concerns continue into Thursday across the Gulf Coast and
portions of the eastern Texas.

Monsoonal moisture will start to increase over parts of the Southwest,
producing showers and thunderstorms.  By Thursday, the showers and
thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage and intensity as the
strengthening southerly flow will transport moisture northward, leading to
heavy rainfall. With the increase in moisture combined with diurnal
heating, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Thursday. Expect afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms to continue over the region into Friday.

Meanwhile, an active frontal zone will extend from the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Shortwave energy
ejecting from the upper trough will interact with this boundary, while
warm moist air moves northward. This setup will lead to periods of showers
and thunderstorms. The strongest storms will bring moments of heavy
rainfall, severe thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding
risk across portions of the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast into early Friday morning. Further west, the frontal boundary
over central U.S. will lift northward and extend into the northern
Rockies, producing showers and severe thunderstorms through the remainder
of Wednesday. The frontal system will strengthen over Intermountain
West/northern Rockies producing organized showers through Friday, which
may lead to excessive rainfall/flash flooding over sensitive areas.

The upper ridge over south-central U.S. will maintain dangerous heat
across much of central and eastern U.S. through Friday. Daytime highs will
reach between 95-105 degrees across the central and southern Plains,
Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. The combination of above normal
temperatures and high humidity will result in widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk, which may bring heat-related illnesses. Please see WPC's Key
Messages for further details.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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