749 
FXUS64 KMRX 091855
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Morning fog possible for Mother's Day. Very low chance of a
  shower tomorrow evening, meager rainfall tomorrow night into 
  Monday morning.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and 
  southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

- Another potential frontal passage brings medium chances for
  additional meager rainfall on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Both HRRR and the NAM have some steep inversions near or at the 
surface tomorrow morning, so tacked in some mentions of patchy fog 
for the early morning hours. 

Well, the trend is not our friend to bust the drought. Vertical 
profiles for tomorrow have gotten more inhospitable to hydrometeor 
production, with hardly any CAPE around on guidance, and mostly 
sunny skies helping to mix the afternoon RHs fairly low. It'll be a 
slightly above normal day temperature wise, but should be great 
weather for anyone with surprise plans. When the front and upper jet 
get here late Sunday night, we'll get enough divergence to power 
light rain showers for much of the area, but the lack of quality
moisture advection means resulting QPF is extremely low.

Arguably the biggest obvious impact (other than the potential for 
fog in the morning) is the potential for more patchy frost Tuesday 
morning as temperatures again drop into the 30s across portions of 
northern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia, along with the 
mountains of East Tennessee. Beyond Tuesday we'll enter another 
rebound to warmer weather. A weak upper disturbance attempts to give 
rainfall on Wednesday, but much like Monday morning ensemble QPF 
with this system is also really poor, if any. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR TAFs through the period. A few gusty winds this afternoon
before winds once again relax following the diurnal trend. Very
low chance for fog tomorrow morning at the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  85  60  76 /   0  10  30  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  82  58  72 /   0   0  50  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  83  56  72 /   0   0  40  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  79  53  68 /   0   0  60  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


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