255 
FXUS64 KMRX 021815
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
215 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026
 
- Very hot conditions are expected through the rest of the week 
  with highs reaching well into the 90s and heat index values 
  approaching or exceeding 100 for most places outside the higher 
  elevations. 

- Temperatures will gradually moderate some through the weekend 
  with a return of isolated to scattered showers and storms. 

- A few storms Friday afternoon/evening mainly north and then
  including the remainder of the area Saturday may become strong
  to severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

No significant changes with the weather forecast, with the heat 
being the main story. A large ridge parked over the region will keep 
things quite hot through Friday. Temperatures this afternoon and 
tomorrow will be at least flirting with, and possibly reaching or 
exceeding, record highs both afternoons. Friday will still be quite 
hot, but may be just a bit further off the slightly higher daily 
records. Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 over nearly 
all of our area outside of the higher elevations, with many 
locations especially south and central will have heat index values 
top out at or above 105. A heat advisory is in effect for the 
southern valley today and this will be extended until Friday 
evening. Will also add a heat advisory for portions of the central 
valley and northern Plateau for Thu afternoon until Friday evening. 


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge                
09-02   100(2011)      98(2011)       96(1943)       99(1953)       
09-03   100(1954)      98(2011)       96(2011)       99(2011)       
09-04   102(1954)      101(1954)      99(1954)       100(1954)      

By this weekend the upper ridge axis will shift to our west as a 
trough deepens over the northeastern CONUS with a return to more 
northwesterly flow aloft, taking the edge off of the oppressive heat 
as we head through the weekend into early next week. While we will 
back off of the records it will still be hot, and we will also see 
an uptick in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms even 
outside of the higher terrain especially Saturday through Monday.  

Models generally show a weak surface boundary sagging south toward 
us Friday and then across our area Saturday. CAPE will increase with 
some steepening of the mid level lapse rates Friday afternoon north 
and then across the remainder of our area Saturday ahead of the weak 
boundary, with significant DCAPE likely to be present as well. Shear 
should remain weak, but a few storms may become strong to severe 
with damaging wind gusts the primary threat Friday afternoon/evening 
mainly north and then including the remainder of our area Saturday. 

The ridge is forecast to build back over the region for Tuesday and 
Wednesday of next week, but there is some uncertainty in the models 
on the strength and placement of the ridge. The ensembles paint 
slightly different pictures, with the EPS/EPS-AIFS camp showing a 
stronger ridge over us which would likely bring a return to very hot 
conditions, and the GEFS camp showing a more muted ridge. Either way 
it will remain hot, but we will have to wait to see if the more 
oppressive heat will be returning next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Mostly a persistence forecast, so will include fog again at TRI
late tonight. Otherwise, a VFR forecast for the period all sites.
Winds will generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75 100  75  99 /   0  10  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  98  73  97 /   0  10  10  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  98  73  98 /   0  10  10  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  96  68  95 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for Anderson-
     Campbell-Knox-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Scott TN-
     Union.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for Bledsoe-
     Bradley-Hamilton-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest 
     Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)