Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Thursday and expanding into parts of the Southern Rockies
on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression EDOUARD, which moved inland over
Eastern Texas, are forecast to move northward into Northeastern Texas and
dissipate by Thursday evening. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall will drop to a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
on Friday and continue over most of the Gulf Coast. In addition,
upper-level impulses along the Gulf Coast will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast Coast and along the Gulf Coast
through Saturday.

Also on Thursday, a front will move eastward into the Northeast and move
out over the ocean by Friday.  The system will produce moderate rain over
parts of the Northeast /Great Lakes into the Northern Plains on Thursday.
Severe thunderstorms will also develop over the area on Thursday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley and into
parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.  In addition, a second
area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Likewise, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains /Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Friday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday, the showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic.  Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday into
Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

The showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Ohio
Valley into parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley and
continue over parts of the region through Saturday.

Monsoonal moisture will increase over parts of the Southwest, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Southwest on Thursday and Friday.  The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region
into Saturday. Additionally, some moisture will move into Southern
California early Saturday morning, producing rain over the area.

Elsewhere, a front over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday will move
eastward into the Northern High Plains and parts of the Great Basin by
Saturday. The system will produce rain over the Northwest on Thursday into
Friday. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will also develop over the
Northern Intermountain Region through Friday and reduce to showers over
the region by Saturday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic into
Saturday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)