816 
FXUS64 KMRX 101039 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Patchy dense fog possible early this morning. Be careful on your 
morning commute.

- Mostly dry today, with increasing rain chances tonight 
  associated with a cold front. Overall, light accumulation with 
  nothing strong expected.

- Another cold front around Wednesday to bring the next potential 
round of light rainfall.

- The heat gets turned up next weekend with 80s to near 90 degree 
highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

There is the possibilty of some patchy dense fog this morning, so if 
you will be commuting early on this Mother's Day, take caution.

Troughiness will continue to hold strong for much of the week with 
quasizonal to northwesterly flow across the area. Due to such, the 
lack of moisture return and southwesterly flow will result in a 
fairly weak cold frontal passage later today and late tonight. In 
fact, it will be quite dry much of the day with minimum RHs falling 
into the 30s and 40s percent range. Total QPF from the system 
continues to shift more north and generally light, with amounts in 
the hundredth to tenth range. Before the system's exit, 
northwesterly flow induced showers may keep the chances going, 
especially across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures markedly cooler tomorrow into Tuesday morning. The 
potential for frost Tuesday morning has lessened with this latest 
forecast. Lows may be near 40 or warmer now instead of in the upper 
30s. Still perhaps a chance in the highest elevations of SW Virginia 
and NE Tennessee. 

A low pressure system that will shift down from central Canada 
and traverse the Great Lakes will bring the next cold front to 
the area around Wednesday. The core of the moisture of this system
appears it will stay well north. So, another chance of possible 
light accumulation mid-week.

After cooler temperatures Thursday, a noticeable warming trend will 
begin and bring some hot temperatures next weekend. The locked in 
troughing will finally shift east and be replaced by ridging from 
the west. Above average temperatures will continue a week beyond the 
forecast, according to the CPC. Mostly dry weather can be expected 
the end of the week and into the weekend with possible light rain 
chances the middle of next weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Fog at TRI will lift in the next hour or two. VFR conditions will
pervail at all sites through the rest of the period. Broken VFR
cigs will increase tonight, with a chance of showers arriving near
12Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  60  76  52 /   0  20  30   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  57  73  48 /   0  20  50   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  56  73  47 /   0  40  50   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  52  69  42 /   0  40  60   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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