773 
FXUS64 KMRX 031055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 654 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026
 
- Very hot conditions are expected through the rest of the week
  with highs reaching well into the 90s and heat index values
  approaching or exceeding 100 for most places outside the higher
  elevations. Take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water when
  outdoors this week!

- Temperatures will gradually moderate some through the weekend
  with a return of isolated to scattered showers and storms. 

- A few storms Friday afternoon/evening mainly north and then
  including the remainder of the area Saturday may become strong
  to severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Heat advisory will be in effect for the core heating hours both 
today and tomorrow all the way up to Campbell, Union, Knox, and 
Sevier counties. Upper ridge is bearing its full might down upon us 
this week, so everyone needs to think cool thoughts. Thursday is the 
more likely of the remaining two days of the week to hit daily 
records, with both peak heat expected today and the records 
themselves being a touch lower. Yesterday Chattanooga tied a daily 
record and TYS and TRI stopped just short. Today 850 mb temperatures 
will be reaching their 21C (near seasonal climatological maximum) 
peaks for today into Saturday, and the combination sinking will 
maximize the heat. 

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge                 
09-03   100(1954)      98(2011)       96(2011)       99(2011)       
09-04   102(1954)      101(1954)      99(1954)       100(1954)      

Dewpoints have been dipping into the upper 60s at Chattanooga, 
McGhee Tyson, and Tri-Cities the last couple of afternoons during 
peak boundary layer mixing. These values are a few degrees lower 
than the low 70s the NBM and other consensus aids want to paint, 
which isn't surprising given the NBM's high dewpoint biases. 
Regardless, it will be HOT today, tomorrow, Saturday, and then not 
as hot Sunday into next week.

Not as hot because we have a northeastern trough helping to bring a 
"cold" front through on Saturday, and a weak impulse on Sunday. 
Friday looks more isolated coverage, but should a storm grow tall 
enough the thermodynamics are favorable for downburst gusty winds. 
Saturday ahead of the "cold" front the RRFS has slightly better 
coverage, but still on the low end side for coverage and again 
downburst winds would be the expected hazard. Sunday the NBM is the 
most bullish on PoPs wise as a combination of the slightly lesser 
upper heights and what the GFS and Euro both depict as a weak 
impulse pivots through our region, likely helping to initiate 
additional thunderstorms. Again, main hazards would be gusty winds 
and lightning.

Looking ahead temperature wise, the GFS/Euro seemed to trade dance 
partners while the EPS is still steadfast on a return of the ridge 
midweek next week. We'll see. Hopefully we get more upper trough 
than upper ridge. Either way it looks likely Chattanooga will at 
least be sporting a continued streak of 90+ weather. Water breaks 
for those with fall sports and outdoors jobs remains of utmost 
importance for heat safety for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Similar to the past few mornings, brief flight category reductions
are possible at TRI for the next hour or so. Fog will then clear 
and lead way to VFR conditions and light winds this afternoon. 
Some isolated convection cannot be ruled out this afternoon and 
evening, but confidence in any terminal impacts are too low to 
include a mention at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN            100  76  99  76 /   0   0  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  98  74  98  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       98  74  98  73 /   0  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              96  70  95  69 /   0   0  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for 
     Anderson-Campbell-Knox-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Scott TN-Union.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for Bledsoe-
     Bradley-Hamilton-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest 
     Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KRS


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