921 
FXUS64 KMRX 201127
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

-Line of showers with potential for a few embedded rumbles of 
 thunder move across the region early this morning. Severe weather
 is unlikely, but some strong wind gusts between 30-40mph will be
 possible.

-Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm conditions through
 Saturday, cold Sunday and Monday, and then likely mild again for
 mid week.

-Cold front early Sunday likely to induce northwest flow snowfall
 pattern through Sunday night. Light snowfall accumulations 
 possible in higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and
 southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation flurries. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

In the upper levels, a broad ridge lays atop the southeastern CONUS 
as a shortwave trough begins to dig through the upper mid-west. The 
shortwave will guide a surface cold front, currently within western 
Tennessee, through the CWA early this morning. A quick moving line 
of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected just ahead 
of the front. Timing will generally be between 08-12Z. With a strong 
southwesterly LLJ near 50kts, a high shear / low CAPE environment 
will be in place. Most high resolution model derived soundings 
depict a few hundred J/Kg of MUCAPE with effective shear near 50kts 
and 0-1km shear near 40kts. 

Overall, the nocturnal timing of this activity will really hinder 
severe potential, though it is possible some strong winds between 30-
40mph get transported to the surface with the most efficient 
showers/storms. Additionally, the LLJ will continue promote strong 
winds in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. No 
changes have been made to the Wind Advisory aside from refreshing 
wording. 

Shower and storm activity quickly departs this morning, leading way 
to a dry late morning and afternoon. Winds will be breezy in the 
post-FROPA environment, however, the weaker nature of the shortwave 
and front will allow for winds to remain WSWly. As such, above 
normal temperatures are expected once again. A southern stream 
shortwave will translate towards the southern Appalachians Friday 
evening/night, bringing additional rain chances. Storm chances will 
be even lower during this period as the LLJ will be weaker and 
displaced to our south, keeping instability little to none. Drier 
conditions return late Saturday morning into the afternoon. 

Yet another trough is expected Saturday night. However, this will 
bring a pattern shift as this trough will be strong enough to shift 
upper riding over the Atlantic. Some light and low impact 
precipitation is expected early Sunday. For most places this will be 
rain, but some light snow is expected in higher elevations of the 
mountains and southwest Virginia. The very warm temperatures in 
place ahead of this system will help to limit initial accumulations. 

As a surface low strengthens off the Atlantic coast Sunday night, 
reinforcement of northwest flow will promote additional snow in the 
higher terrain. Most medium and long range models are in agreement 
this will be a lower end event with accumulations between a dusting 
to two inches. The deterministic GFS holds higher totals, but seems 
to be an outlier due it being slower to kick the surface low over 
the Atlantic and also having a more amplified low. Overall, the 
RRFS, NAM12, ECMWF, and Canadian all seem to be in pretty decent 
agreement. 

Monday will be much colder with most valley locations seeing high 
temperatures in the 30s. We then dry out with moderating 
temperatures into the mid-week. Precip chances look to make a return 
at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

The showers are exiting, but gusty winds from the southwest and
west can be expected during the day especially at TYS and TRI.
Some light rain will likely move back in late in the period mainly
CHA and TYS. Will include VCSH both TYS and CHA with a prob30 
MVFR cig/vsby light rain group. Just VCSH for now at TRI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  49  66  36 /  10  60  30  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  47  60  36 /  10  50  30  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  45  61  34 /   0  40  20  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  43  57  35 /  30  20  20  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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