228 
FXUS64 KMRX 051818
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
218 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- The dry weather will persist through Saturday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day 
  Sunday through the coming work week especially in the 
  afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft over the southeastern 
CONUS will continue to provide us with dry and seasonably warm 
conditions through Saturday. A system moving through the Northeast
will bring a cold front into the Ohio Valley but this front will 
stall to our north. A weak upper level low over the Plains will be
slow to move this weekend as a blocking ridge extends from the 
Southeast U.S. to Ontario Canada, but eventually the remnants of 
this upper low will make it into the Ohio Valley by the Tues/Wed 
time frame. The associated weakness in the ridge over our area 
will then move off to our east as the upper ridging re-asserts 
itself over the region for the end of the work week. 

Moisture will be increasing by Sunday, and chances for showers and 
thunderstorms will return to our area as weak short wave energy 
moves across the region. Models generally show limited instability 
at best (outside of the NAM which right now is an outlier), but PWAT 
values are forecast to be above 1.8 inches at least in the south and 
any CAPE will likely be of the tall skinny variety resulting in the 
possibility of heavy rainfall rates with any storms that develop. 

No strong synoptic forcing is currently in the forecast for the 
coming work week. However, given the increased moisture and 
instability we will see chances for showers and storms each day 
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Right now, shear 
generally looks weak and chances for severe storms look very low 
overall.  However, model PWAT values  will be around 1.7 to 1.8 
inches or more at times, and there will be the possibility of very 
heavy rainfall that could cause localized flooding in any areas that 
see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be out of the south and southwest and less than 10kts
during the day, with light to calm winds overnight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  88  68  86 /   0   0  10  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  88  67  87 /   0   0  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  86  64  86 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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