ACUS02 KWNS 030543
SWODY2
SPC AC 030542

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and
large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will amplify over the Plains states, with upper
troughs meandering over the Interior West and along the East Coast.
East of the ridge crest, multiple impulses will track southeastward
across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic, atop a surface warm frontal
boundary, serving as the impetus for thunderstorm initiation in
these areas. Given modestly stronger flow and cooler temperatures
aloft overspreading this moisture-rich surface boundary, a few
storms may become severe.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
At least one or more subtle mid-level impulses will pivot around the
broader East Coast trough, supporting scattered thunderstorm
initiation by afternoon. By this time, surface temperatures should
reach 90 F, amid 70 F dewpoints, yielding around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
given 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer northwesterly
flow will be in place, supporting 20-40 kts of effective bulk (speed
shear), favoring multicells and perhaps a transient supercell, the
strongest of which may produce damaging gusts or an instance of hail.

...Portions of the Midwest to Ohio Valley... 
Upper support for convective initiation will be even weaker across
the Midwest/OH Valley compared to the areas closer to the East
Coast. Nonetheless, 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE along a
surface warm front, where subtle convergence will reside.
Thunderstorm coverage should be quite isolated. However, any storms
that manage to mature may become multicellular or supercellular
given 30+ kts of effective bulk shear in place. An instance or two
of severe wind or hail are possible.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

$$
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