ACUS11 KWNS 101955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101954
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-102130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101954Z - 102130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail
this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating amid lingering cloud cover is
contributing to modest air mass modification across portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of overnight convection, with
latest mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE has increased to 1250-2000
J/kg across the region. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is
ongoing within this air mass along several surface boundaries. While
low-level flow remains meager (per the LZK VWP), modest westerly
flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts. This
will be sufficient to support a mix of multicells and marginal
supercell structures through the afternoon. Modestly steep low-level
lapse rates (greater than 7 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) may foster
an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts. Small to marginally severe
hail may also be possible with more robust updrafts despite
generally poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the expectation for the
severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch
issuance is unlikely.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33749274 34059308 34629347 35259358 35669352 35979330
            36029287 35949162 35629044 35128973 34628915 34168911
            33678930 33328974 33229043 33379135 33749274

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

=3D =3D =3D
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 * Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)