MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 031646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031646 
MNZ000-NDZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 031646Z - 031915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon as they develop out of North Dakota and into
Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail appear most likely.

DISCUSSION...A substantial north-south oriented line of
thunderstorms has maintained intensity last few hours, with periodic
severe hail cores and possible strong winds. These storms are near
an inverted trough which links with a surface low near the ND/SD
border. This system is also approaching a warm front over
east-central ND, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints south of the
boundary.

Visible imagery shows strong heating over southeast ND into northern
MN, with a cloud field near the warm front and immediately
east/southeast of the storms. As heating continues, the warm front
is forecast to lift, and as this occurs, new development is
anticipated along southern parts of the line of storms.
Southeastward propagation may then occur, with a corridor of
damaging winds likely expanding into MN. 

Steep lapse rates aloft will also favor hail production, with
possible wind-driven hail later today. A tornado cannot be ruled
later today and into the evening where the line of storms intersects
the warm front/zone of enhanced low-level shear.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/03/2026

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46039531 46129645 46269693 46569747 46969813 47499848
            48079845 48999786 49039564 48569400 48399325 47299329
            46549389 46039531 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$

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