074 
FXUS64 KMRX 101912
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Meager rainfall late tonight into midday Monday.

- Another system on Wednesday may bring light rain to primarily
  locations north of Knoxville.

- Summer-like heat arrives next weekend with 80s to near 90 
  degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Only real change over the last several forecast iterations has been 
the timing of the rain gradually shifting further into the day on 
Monday. Could still see some light showers/sprinkles late tonight, 
but the vast bulk of hardly anything is now expected Monday morning 
into around early afternoon. The HRRR has a few locations in our far 
northeastern counties getting slightly over a quarter of an inch, 
though REFS probabilities at that threshold aren't even over 40%. 
Locations Knoxville and south can expect even less to zero.

Temperatures for Tuesday morning incremented slightly warmer, though 
given clear skies I still would be wary of some patchy frost in 
portions of the high elevations and southwest Virginia. Fog is also 
possible thanks to the light rain. Additional light rain chances, 
and maybe (maybe!) a rumble of thunder in northeastern TN and north 
on Wednesday as a second upper trough pivots through. Upper heights 
rise thereafter and we start to see a more significant return flow 
from the Deep South, the combination of which means we enter a more 
legitimate warm up next weekend with a potential arrival of 90F 
weather for the southern valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Clouds will gradually increase in advance of an approaching cold
front. TAFs to remain VFR and dry until roughly 12z, when
uncertainty over MVFR potential increases while light rain showers
cross from west to east through the end of the TAF period. Not 
confident if any terminal will drop to MVFR conditions, but some 
potential is present region wide. Winds to remain light with a 
northerly pivot with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  76  50  80 /  10  30   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  58  73  46  77 /  20  60   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  73  45  77 /  30  50   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  68  41  73 /  40  60   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


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