Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 04 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 06 2026

...A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for parts of eastern
Texas through this evening with the remnants of Edouard...

...Thunderstorms with potential severe weather and flash flooding likely
along a front from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...

...Monsoonal moisture could cause scattered flash flooding in parts of
Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days...

Surface troughing and upper-level energy left over from Edouard is
currently focusing moisture for continued heavy rain in parts of eastern
Texas. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) remains in place for flash flooding
potential with this system. Areas that have already seen copious rain
amounts from the system will be at particular risk. Convection is forecast
to weaken into this evening, with a possible minor uptick late night--but
overall weaker than in previous days, as the support for heavy rain
continues to dissipate. Farther east, ample moisture stretched across the
Gulf Coast region to Florida, along with some surface low pressure, will
allow for scattered thunderstorms causing instances of flash flooding
through Friday and Saturday.

Farther north, an active frontal boundary will continue to spark
thunderstorms along it for the next couple days as it meanders in the
Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic and then slowly sinks southward.
Thunderstorm complexes in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through
tonight have a threat of tornadoes, high winds, and hail. In the Great
Lakes to Mid-Atlantic, strong winds are the primary threat through
tonight, and there is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) shown by the Storm
Prediction Center for this potential across northeast Ohio/western
Pennsylvania embedded within larger Slight Risks encompassing these
regions. On Friday, the primary thunderstorm threat (mostly for high
winds, with some hail possible) is across the central Appalachians to
Mid-Atlantic region. Some isolated flash flooding is possible where storms
produce higher rain rates and in sensitive places like urban areas. By
Saturday, the front sinking south will lead to potentially severe
thunderstorms centered over North Carolina and vicinity.

Monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across the Southwest over the next
several days, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. WPC
continues to indicate Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of Arizona and New Mexico through this evening and again on Friday
for these storms. Urban areas and also dry washes and burn scars will be
most vulnerable to flooding. Farther north, a reasonably strong
upper-level low for this time of year will continue to push a front
through the Northwest, leading to widespread showers and some
thunderstorms, with a nonzero chance of flooding through tonight. Showers
are forecast to continue across the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies
for late week, but with lower overall rain totals.

Temperatures continue to be well above average for September across most
areas east of the Rockies for the next few days as an upper-level ridge
sets up. Heat Advisories are widespread from the south-central Plains into
the Mid-Atlantic, with Extreme Heat Warnings centered in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, for temperatures and heat indices well into the
90s and 100s. Warm low temperatures will cause added heat stress to
vulnerable people and infrastructure, while also setting widespread
records for warm minimums. Major to Extreme HeatRisk is widespread. See
WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat. The Northeast to
Mid-Atlantic should gradually see some heat relief as a cold front
progresses south late week into the weekend, but the central U.S. will
remain hot. Meanwhile, temperatures will be below average across the West
given the upper low overhead.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)