221 
FXUS64 KMRX 111052 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Increasing rain chances today associated with a cold front. 
Overall, light accumulation north of the southern valley and 
plateau, and SW North Carolina.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential 
round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas.

- The heat gets turned up next weekend with upper 80s to low 90 
degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Not much rain had fallen yesterday up until this very time. A few 
sites recorded a few hundredths of an inch from afternoon showers. 
The rain potential with the anticipated cold front has shifted later 
and continues to change on amounts. Totals have increased for some, 
with the possibility of just over a quarter of an inch. 
Unfortunately, the southern plateau, valley, and SW NC may not see 
anything. According to surface analysis, the cold front currently 
slices diagonally across our area. The majority of the rain will 
fall early in the day with low chances for thunder. Upslope induced 
terrain showers may fire some thunderstorms later this afternoon 
before the complete exit of the system. HREF probs doesn't even 
depict CAPE of 500 J/kg or above.

The much drier air behind the front doesn't arrive until later in 
the day today. Tomorrow morning lows are continuing to show 
temperatures generally above 40 degrees. Wind over the highest 
terrain may prevent full decoupling. That said, the frost potential 
is very low from where it was 48 hours ago. Tomorrow and Wednesday 
we warm a little compared to today, but another cold front will 
sweep through from the north. Yet another shot at light 
precipitation sometime Wednesday from this next system. The core of 
the moisture appears it'll stay well north. Currently, QPF totals 
much lighter compared to today's system, with again, favorability 
for the northern parts of the forecast area.

Much cooler temperatures again Thursday and into Friday morning, 
where it appears 40s for lows just don't want to leave us quite yet. 
Only a very short lived dip, because we will turn a hard corner 
going into the weekend. The locked in troughing will finally shift 
east and be replaced by ridging from the west. Low 90s are possible 
for the southern valley next Sunday. True southwesterly flow will 
also return, where dew points may even crack into the 60s. Hot and 
humid may actually finally arrive. Above average temperatures 
expected to continue a week beyond the forecast, according to the 
CPC. As far as precipitation is concerned, mostly dry weather can be 
expected the end of the week and into the weekend with possible 
outside chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers are spreading across the northern half of the area
this morning, affecting TYS and TRI in the next few hours, and 
exiting around 18Z. TYS should stay mainly VFR with the light 
rain, but a brief drop to MVFR vis cannot be ruled out. TRI will 
likely have some heavier showers that produce MVFR vis/cigs for a 
few hours this morning. CHA is expected to stay dry. Winds will 
be from a N direction today behind a cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             77  52  79  57 /  20   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  48  77  55 /  60   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  47  77  53 /  60   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  43  73  49 /  90   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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