ACUS11 KWNS 061507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061507
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-061730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...northern West
Virginia...and northern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 061507Z - 061730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage and
intensity through the late morning/afternoon with an increase in
damaging wind potential.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues south and east across
portions of eastern Indiana into Ohio, with occasional strong to
isolated severe gusts (50-60 mph). It is uncertain how this will
evolve downstream, with guidance showing potential for maintenance
and intensification along the remaining outflow later in the
afternoon. Gradual increase in forcing for ascent will occur this
afternoon as strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the area with
the trough across the Great Lakes. Filtered heating is expected
through broken mid-level cloud cover. This in combination with dew
points in the low to mid 60s will yield around 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates are expected,
supporting downward transport of higher momentum flow aloft to the
surface. Additional downstream development is likely with potential
for several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind through the
afternoon. While exact timing of this threat remains uncertain, a
watch will likely be needed to cover this potential by the afternoon.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   39388094 39598308 39778367 40128449 40428451 40718435
            41138399 41408307 41498278 41707930 41127867 40497870
            39977880 39517912 39388094

$$
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