784 
FXUS64 KMRX 061743
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Sunday 
through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening 
hours.

- Lots of moisture in the atmosphere means we could see periods of
  heavy rainfall and eventually flooding this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Currently another day of calm weather as we remain under the ridge 
sitting over the southeastern United States. But winds have turned 
more southerly so our dew points and temperatures are ticking up as 
a low/trough tries to move north through the plains states into the 
midwest. This system will try and make inroads into the ridge that's 
been over the southeastern US, but looks to lose out and  remain 
over the Ohio Valley as we head into next week.

Rain chances do increase tomorrow and pretty much through the rest 
of the upcoming week as we get into a more hot and humid pattern. 
Generally near or above normal temperatures and dew points in the 
upper 60's to low 70's will be in play for most of the upcoming 
week. There will be a few disturbances expected to move through and 
provide times of enhanced  coverage, but even without that the very 
warm temperatures means we should expect to see the return of 
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Much of next week looks 
to see an extremely saturated atmosphere with PWAT values hovering 
around the 2 inch mark until late in the week. This means that any 
showers and storms that develop will be very effective rain-makers. 
The profile soundings show tall, skinny CAPE which hints at 
efficient rain production, and would also tend to limit the severe 
threat a bit (although not completely eliminate it). There is no 
major strong synoptic forcing for longer range models to try and 
depict, so it's hard to pinpoint where the highest risk for flooding 
may be next week. As the week continues on and we see some places 
get multiple rounds of moderate to heavy storms expect to see the 
threat for flash flooding increase, but confidence on timing and 
location at this time is very low until we see where early week 
storms and rainfall end up occurring.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions, expected for the next 24 hours. Will start to see
some rain trying to creep in around KCHA in the last couple of
hours of this TAF cycle, and eventually will need to introduce
rain chances at all sites for tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  83  69  82 /   0  60  40  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  87  69  84 /   0  10  20  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  85  67  83 /   0  10  30  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  87  66  88 /   0   0   0  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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