449 
FXUS64 KMRX 111830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Colder tonight, with some patchy fog expected across areas that 
  received rainfall earlier today.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential
  round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas. Gusty
  winds across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through
  the day are also expected.

- The heat gets turned up this weekend/early next week with upper
  80s to low 90 degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Colder tonight. Clearing conditions may lead to patchy fog, 
especially across areas that received measurable rainfall. 

A pleasant day is expected on Tuesday with drier air in place, sunny 
skies, and near normal temps. 

Our next shot at rain, and perhaps a few storms, arrives on 
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. QPF is still expected to be on the 
lighter side and continues to favor our northern areas. There is a 
marginal risk for severe storms in place just to our north/northeast 
and east in portions of WV/VA. There will be plenty of shear but 
little to no instability. Current LREF joint-probs show around a 30 
to 50% chance to see a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE and at least 
30kts of bulk shear. Much higher probs are in place to our 
north/northeast and east, which is where the current day 3 marginal 
exists. It's not out of the question that a few strong storms clip 
our most northern areas but the risk is quite low as of now. Stay
tuned. Additionally, due to the increase in the 850mb jet, wind 
gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be possible across the highest peaks 
of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also
expected across valley locations. 


Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on 
Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging 
returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The 
low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest 
models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on 
Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers have pushed east of the area. Forecasting VFR
through the period at our TAF sites but some of our other sites 
are currently reporting MVFR conditions. It's not out of the 
question that TRI sees a brief period of MVFR this afternoon but 
not confident enough to include in TAFS. Additionally, some patchy
fog is expected tonight, but will omit fog from TAFS for now due 
to low confidence in coverage. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  80  58  82 /   0   0  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  78  56  79 /   0   0   0  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  74  50  74 /   0   0  10  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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