437 
FXUS64 KMRX 121019 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Cool start today, with patchy morning fog possible. Otherwise 
sunny and pleasant.

- Another cold front moves through on Wednesday with chances for 
light rain highest north of the I-40 corridor. Gusty winds across 
the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through the day are also 
expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives next weekend. Highs 
in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today will be pleasant, with dry conditions across the board and 
plenty of sun thanks to surface high pressure and some slight height 
rises aloft. Despite the cool start to the day, temperatures will 
rebound into the 70s for low elevation areas and possibly near 80 
for the southern TN valley.

The next shortwave will drop out of the midwest and into the Ohio 
valley tonight into Wednesday, with the cold front moving through 
the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain 
chances ramp up during the day Wednesday, but primarily north of the 
I-40 corridor which is closer to the stronger upper support to our 
north. Lesser rain chances exist in the south. Regardless, QPF with 
this event will be quite light, with well less than 0.10" expected. 
There remains an outside chance of a stronger storm impacting our 
far northern areas on Wednesday. Ensemble data continues to show 
joint probabilities in the 30-50 percent range for at least 300 J/kg 
worth of instability along with 30kt of shear for Wed afternoon and 
evening. However, the odds of seeing strong to severe storms on Wed 
seem pretty low overall. Additionally, H85 winds increase Wed which 
should be sufficient for some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range 
for the highest peaks of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph 
gusts are also expected across valley locations. 

Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on 
Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging 
returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The 
low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest 
models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on 
Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast this period, with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  57  82  54 /   0   0  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  55  79  51 /   0   0  50   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  55  79  49 /   0   0  50   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              74  50  74  45 /   0   0  60  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS


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