Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 07 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will
slowly shift southward across the lower Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic
during the Labor Day weekend...

...Monsoonal moisture could trigger scattered flash flooding in parts of
Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

The forecast remains on track for a deepening upper-level low and
associated cold front over Atlantic Canada to sustain a corridor of strong
to severe thunderstorms and scattered heavy rainfall from the Upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the first half of Labor Day weekend.
This afternoon, the focus for thunderstorms will roughly extend from
Detroit to D.C. ahead of the cold front, before the severe and heavy rain
threat migrates into the Central and Southern Appalachians tomorrow as the
front sinks southward. Eventually, the front will settle into the
Southeast on Sunday, leading to scattered thunderstorms capable of
isolated heavy rainfall. Rainfall aside, the frontal passage will also
provide some much needed relief from the heat in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures in the mid-70's and low 80's can be
expected by Sunday.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across mainly Arizona and
New Mexico where showers and thunderstorms will be most active during the
late-day hours with locally heavy rain over the next several days. WPC
maintains a Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall straddling
across Arizona-New Mexico border for today. Urban areas and also dry
washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Farther north,
an unusually deep upper-level low and frontal system will push widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms through the Northwest and Northern
Plains on Sunday, with a nonzero chance of localized flooding issues.
Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be quite pleasant across the West
this weekend as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

In contrast, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day in the
Nation's Heartland as an upper-level ridge remains anchored over the
midsection of the country. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record
warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern
Plains States and Mississippi Valley this weekend. See WPC's Key Messages
for more information on the heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if
possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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