424 
FXUS64 KMRX 071828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day 
  through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening
  hours. 

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash 
  flooding is expected Monday, especially over our TN and SW NC 
  counties

- The potential for very heavy rainfall which could lead to 
  localized flooding can be expected at times through the coming 
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Warm and sticky conditions are expected for the upcoming week into 
the weekend, with chances for showers and storms each day. 

The main concern will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall 
and flooding over the coming week.  Moisture is already surging in 
the southern portion of our area, and a few showers/storms that are 
moving in may contain very heavy rainfall and the threat of 
localized flooding this afternoon into tonight mainly across our far 
SW counties. The threat of flooding looks heightened on Monday as 
weak short wave energy traverses the area. Models portray a very 
moist airmass with PWAT values surging to around 2 inches across the 
much of the area, which are near record values for early June in our 
area. Flow is weak and storms are expected to move slowly, and the 
expected modest CAPE looks to be of the tall skinny variety which 
coupled with high freezing levels will favor very efficient warm 
rain processes and the potential for very heavy rainfall rates. CAMS 
are showing the potential for localized areas of very heavy 
rainfall, and rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour look 
possible. Pinpointing the exact locations where very heavy rainfall 
will occur is not possible at this time, although the risk looks 
highest across the Plateau and our southern and central counties. 
Will issue a flash flood watch for our TN and NC counties for Monday.

PWAT values are forecast to remain elevated for much of the coming 
week as no strong drying is forecast anytime soon, although ensemble 
data indicates values will be a bit lower than on Monday. Daily 
showers and storms can be expected each day, especially during the 
afternoon and evening in response to peak heating.  There will 
continue to be the potential for very heavy rainfall rates and 
localized flooding, especially in areas that see repeated or 
prolonged periods of heavy rain. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be mainly south early in the period
then diminish for a period overnight before increasing again and
spreading north at least as far as TYS. Expect mainly MVFR/IFR
conditions at CHA, with VFR/MVFR at TYS and mainly VFR at TRI.
Will try to time best chances for thunder with tempo and prob30
groups at CHA and TYS.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  80  68  84 /  70  90  60  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  80  68  84 /  30  80  50  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  79  67  83 /  40  90  50  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  86  67  84 /   0  60  50  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
     East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
     North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
     Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-
     Union-West Polk.

     Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for 
     Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
     Unicoi-Washington TN.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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