FOUS30 KWBC 200802
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

An axis of heavier rainfall is probable Saturday across portions of
southern to central AL/GA into southern SC. Plenty of instability 
is forecast and some west to east training of convection is a 
possibility. With that said, the overall system is progressive, and
even if we are able to get localized swaths of 2-3" of rain the 
FFGs across this region are higher than that. Thus at this point 
think the risk of flash flooding remains below 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Rainfall totals from the NBM and most ensemble systems have been
trending down through 12z Monday across northwest CA into 
southwest OR. This is due to farther north and west IVT axis and 
more of a south to north orientation just offshore or right along 
the coast. Much of this region has seen well below average rainfall
over the past month, and soil saturation and streamflows are below
average. The combination of the dry antecedent conditions and a 
downward QPF trend warranted the removal of the inherited Marginal 
risk area. Instead rainfall Sunday into Sunday night is more likely
to help prime the region for some possible flood impacts Monday 
into Tuesday as a stronger plume of moisture moves onshore.

Chenard
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