600 
FXUS64 KMRX 081816
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash 
  flooding is expected this afternoon into early evening, 
  especially over our TN and SW NC counties.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day
  through next Monday, and some storms may contain very heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The threat of flash flooding will continue this afternoon into 
early evening and the flash flood watch will be left as is for 
now. While the threat of flooding still looks isolated this 
afternoon into early evening, there continues to be potential for 
extremely high rainfall rates given the near record PWAT values 
combined with the tall skinny CAPE profiles, high freezing levels,
and slow storm movement. CAMS continue to show the potential for 
localized high rainfall totals, and although exact locations for 
any very heavy rainfall is still unclear there appears to be an 
enhanced threat from portions of the Plateau across our central 
CWA and adjacent southern counties near and south of a poorly 
defined, nearly stationary, summertime boundary. This boundary 
currently looks to be draped somewhere across NE TN not far from
Morristown.

PWAT values will still be quite high despite a small tick down on 
Tuesday, and the atmosphere overall is still similar to today with 
very heavy rain rates favored. There will be a slight increase in
flow that should result in slightly faster storm motion. However,
despite the expected uptick in storm motion, given the very moist
environment and another heavy rain favorable CAPE profile along 
with a deep warm cloud layer, very heavy rainfall rates and 
localized flooding will be possible again Tuesday. Right now no 
additional flash flood watch will be issued for tomorrow, but 
trends will be monitored. 

The warm and sticky conditions are then expected to continue for the 
remainder of the week and possibly through the weekend into the 
beginning of next week, with chances for showers and storms each day 
some of which will contain torrential downpours. The weak upper 
trough that is moving across the region today and Tuesday will move 
off to our east and northeast by midweek and be replaced by a 
resurgence of the upper ridge.  This may allow for a bit of a lull 
in the convection mid week, but at least isolated to scattered 
coverage is still expected Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday through 
the weekend into next Monday models have been suggesting a front may 
be approaching although the details about timing and how much 
progress it makes are still very uncertain. However, there may be 
more upper support from the jet to our north or shortwaves in the 
flow aloft as the ridge breaks down and the front approaches, which 
would bring another uptick in convection but also introduces the 
possibility of some drying if the front actually makes it to our 
south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

We will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms around
early in the period, then they will diminish before chances trend
upward again late in period. Highest chances overall look to be at
CHA and TYS. Will have mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in the forecast,
although the details are uncertain and IFR (or lower) conditions 
will be possible at times at least briefly. Will try to time the
periods with the higher thunderstorm probabilities with prob30 and
tempo groups. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  86  70  89 /  50  70  40  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  85  70  88 /  70  80  40  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  84  69  87 /  60  90  30  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  83  67  85 /  30  80  50  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
     Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast 
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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