Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 08 2026

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast for the
remainder of the Labor Day weekend...

...Cool and unsettled weather will progress through the Great Basin and
Intermountain West with heavy rain emerging across northwestern Montana on
Labor Day, followed by strong thunderstorms across the northern Plains
into Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A deepening low-pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes continues to
bring a cool air mass farther southward into the eastern U.S. Showers and
thunderstorms triggered near and along the leading edge of this cool air
mass have gradually shifted southward, with the main focus across the
Southeast to the eastern Gulf Coast region for today into tonight. The
Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms for portions of the Southeast. Behind the front, the cool
air will break the recent spell of heat in the eastern U.S. with high
temperatures reaching only into the mid-70s to low 80s for the next couple
of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and 50s will bring a
first taste of Fall across New England.

As the heat dome remains anchored over the country's midsection, a deep
upper-level low continues to edge farther inland across the western U.S. A
band of heavy rainfall could set up across Utah today near a slow-moving
front. Urban areas, as well as dry washes and burn scars will be most
vulnerable to flooding. Over the next couple of days, a low-pressure
system is forecast to gradually consolidate across the northern High
Plains as the deep upper low edges toward the northern Rockies. This
pattern will lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains over the next couple of
days. The developing storm will interact with anomalous moisture to yield
an expansive shield of moderate to locally heavy rain on the northern
flank of the low over portions of the northern Rockies. WPC is
highlighting northwestern Montana for a slight risk of excessive rainfall
on Labor Day. East of the wrap-around rainfall, an approaching Pacific
cold front could drive strong thunderstorms across the northern Plains,
spreading eastward into the upper Midwest, and southward into the central
Plains ahead of the trailing cold front on Tuesday as the maturing cyclone
drifts across the Canadian Prairie.

Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West this
weekend into the new week as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees below
normal. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures are expected across
the higher elevations as far south as northern California and the Sierra
Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day
in the Nation's Heartland with the unrelenting upper-level ridge over the
nation's midsection. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm
overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern
Plains States and Mississippi Valley through the rest of Labor Day weekend
and into next week. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the
heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated
regardless of your Labor Day plans.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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