058 
FXUS64 KMRX 091059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day 
through the end of the forecast period, and some storms may contain 
very heavy rainfall.

- Persistent mugginess and increased heat each day until a cold
  front arrives sometime between Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues with chances of showers and 
thunderstorms each day pretty much through the entire forecast 
period. SW-W flow will also persist until a cold front the end of 
the week brings a brief bout of relief. Although parameters aren't 
as strong today for a widespread Flood Watch issuance, that doesn't 
mean isolated flash flooding couldn't still occur. PWs on 00z HREF 
and RRFS depict values under 2 inches, when yesterday showed 
multiple 2 inch and above values, way above climo norms. A MRGL to a 
SLGT risk of excessive rainfall from WPC, much like yesterday, will 
cover the forecast area today. A stationary boundary and shortwave 
will continue to support development into today. 

After today, temperatures will rise a couple of degrees each day 
with 70s dew points sticking around. Ridging will build in behind 
the shortwave, thus, showers and storms may be of the typical summer 
variety with better chances over the terrain and a dying down in 
activity during overnight hours. Still cannot rule out isolated 
flash flooding given the environment.

A cold front at the start of the weekend may bring a subtle and 
temporary relief of highs in the valley maxing near 90 and dew 
points in the low to mid 70s in the coming days. Dry weather doesn't 
appear will follow the front, with daily precipitation continuing, 
according to models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Reductions have already been seen at CHA and TYS with rain moving
towards TRI. Additional rain is expected throughout the day with
reductions likely at TRI later this afternoon. Primarily VFR is
expected mid-day into the early evening, but any rain over the
terminals is expected to cause reductions. Overnight, IFR/MVFR are
likely again. Winds will be generally from the southwest today and
calm overnight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  70  89  71 /  60  20  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  70  88  71 /  70  30  50  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  69  88  70 /  80  40  50  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  67  85  68 /  90  50  80  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


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