228 
FXUS64 KMRX 121840
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
240 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, on Wednesday. Low
  confidence, but a few strong storms possible across northeast TN
  into southwest VA. Gusty winds across the higher peaks of the
  east TN mountains are also expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives this coming
  weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the
  valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected overnight, with 
most areas in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow, a cold front 
approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few storms are expected 
to develop along and just ahead of the front. Though the risk is 
low, there is still the potential to see a few strong storms across 
northeast TN into southwest VA. The marginal risk for severe storms 
has shifted south and now include these aforementioned areas. The
main driver for this marginal risk is still primarily due to the 
shear that will be in place with 40 to 50kts of bulk shear. The 
main limiting factor continues to be instability. Like the LREF in
previous days, the HREF retains the roughly 40 to 60% probs of 
seeing at least 500 J/kg CAPE. The driver of this lower
instability are the dewpoints, models generally show dewpoints in
the lower 50s. It's hard to get severe weather with dewpoints 
this low. If we do see any strong stronger storms, isolated 
damaging winds is the primary hazard.

Aside from the showers and storms, winds across the east TN 
mountains still look breezy/gusty with this system. Wind gusts from 
20 to 30 mph are expected across the higher elevations during the 
afternoon and possibly up to 40 mph Wednesday evening into early 
Thursday morning. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also expected 
across valley locations. 


We see a brief cooldown on Thursday behind the front, but with 
plenty of dry air and sunshine returning. Thursday night will be a 
tad chilly again with lows back down into the low to mid 40s for 
most areas. 


Temperatures ramp up this coming weekend and into early next week as 
ridging returns. Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s look likely by 
Sunday through early next week. There are still some chances for 
showers and storms in the forecast on Saturday but models have 
shifted the precip a little further north due to the strength of the 
ridge. We may end up with a situation where our northern areas see 
some precip but we are dry across the southern TN Valley. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light winds expected during 
the near term but southwesterly winds pickup toward the end of the
period and will continue into Wednesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  82  53  76 /   0  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  79  49  72 /   0  40  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  79  48  72 /   0  40   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  74  45  67 /   0  70  30   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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