007 
FXUS64 KMRX 131034 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
634 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, this afternoon and 
evening from a cold front. Low confidence on if any storms can 
become strong across northeast TN into southwest VA. Damaging winds 
the primary threat.

- Summer-like temperatures arrive this weekend, persisting into 
  next week, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A cold front is expected to arrive this afternoon and evening. Areas 
with possibly the best accumulation from this system will be the 
north and east. Very southern reaches of the valley and plateau may 
miss out this round. Perhaps a heavier storm may provide a bit more 
QPF than what the forecast shows, but amounts are generally a 
quarter of an inch or less. SPC places some of SW Virginia and a 
little part of NE Tennessee within the marginal risk for later 
today. The primary hazard will be gusty winds. A point forecast 
sounding in the middle of the SW Virginia counties around 18Z 
outputs a marginal severe threat with a bit over 40KT westerly bulk 
shear and CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Dew points rising into 
the low to mid 50s with convergence along the front, and topographic 
forcing, will lead to some storm development. Steepening lapse rates 
may also contribute to the damaging wind potential. Gusty day-time 
winds in the valley and over higher elevations can be expected today 
as well.

Much cooler tomorrow into Friday morning with highs in the 60s and 
70s and lows Friday morning returning to the 40s, with possible 
upper 30s across the highest terrain. An outside chance of frost 
possible for the coldest spots of the Southern Appalachians.

Thereafter, cold mornings may just become a thing of the past when 
the heat switch gets flipped for this weekend and into next week. 
Stout ridging expanding into Canada will be shifting eastward. Flow 
becomes flattened but not before another amplification of the ridge 
early next week. The warming trend begins Friday afternoon, but the 
80s and 90s begin Saturday afternoon. Any precipitation chances the 
rest of the forecast period following today's front, will generally 
be low. A shortwave Saturday may bring some low-end shower and storm 
chances. Our next frontal system appears it won't be until the 
middle of next week, just outside of this forecast period.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some broken VFR cigs are building overnight, but will remain VFR
through the morning. Showers ahead of a cold front will enter the
TN Valley this afternoon, mainly affecting TYS and TRI. Chances of
MVFR vis look around 30% at both sites. Winds increase and become
gusty this afternoon. Winds shift to NW behind the front in the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Broken clouds today will remain at VFR levels for the majority of
the day, but a line of showers will cross the area this
afternoon/evening. A PROB30 will mention these showers with MVFR
vis, and TS at TRI. Winds will be gusty at TYS and TRI today, from
the SW, then shift to W-NW in the evening behind a cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  53  75  48 /  10  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  49  72  45 /  40  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  49  72  44 /  40   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              74  45  67  41 /  60  40   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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