161 
FXUS64 KMRX 061753
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
153 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
 
- Today will be slightly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 80s 
  and lower 90s.

- Additional thunderstorms expected today, mainly in the southern
  Appalachians and nearby foothills with the primary threat gusty
  winds.

- Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered Monday afternoon.

- Drier conditions return midweek with storms possible toward the
  end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Currently storms continue to move through northeast TN and southwest 
VA as we remain under a strong ridge over most of the United States. 
Weak disturbance is moving through, but it's just enough to help 
organize convection across the area. Atmosphere out there 
(especially across northeast TN and southwest VA) is capable of 
producing strong downbursts from collapsing storms and small hail. 
We could also see some minor flooding as these storms continue to 
run over the same counties today. But at this time widespread severe 
weather and/or widespread flooding is not anticipated on this side 
of the Appalachian Mountains.

For Monday, an inverted surface trough across the Plateau and 
western Tennessee valley will support isolated convection mainly 
along and west of interstate 40. Again, strong/gusty winds and 
frequent lightning will be the main concern.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper ridging builds back over the 
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians producing hot and dry 
conditions. Dewpoints will be in the middle and upper 60s which will 
limit the heat indices below heat advisory criteria.

The upper ridge flattens for Thursday as a short-waves and frontal 
boundary approaches the area. Scattered showers and storms are 
expected. The boundary moves south of the area for Friday.

For Saturday, return southerly flow around surface ridge east of the 
Appalachians will bring moisture and instability back into the area.

In the upper levels, the ridge builds back into the region by Monday 
afternoon although centered near Oklahoma. Monday will have cooler 
temps (although still very warm) with highs in the Tennessee Valley 
mainly in the upper 80s. Showers and storms will be isolated to 
scattered Monday afternoon as an inverted surface trough forms over 
Kentucky and Tennessee. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A few isolated storms are moving near the KTRI airport and could
be in the vicinity for the first few hours of this TAF cycle.
Outside of any thunderstorms VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  91  70  91 /  20  50   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  89  67  91 /  10  50   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  89  66  90 /   0  40   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  84  61  87 /  20  20   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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