613 
FXUS64 KMRX 131821
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
221 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Will see a few showers and possibly thunderstorms this 
  afternoon and evening. Still low confidence on if any storms can
  become strong to severe mainly northeast TN into southwest VA, 
  but if so damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Big warm up for the weekend into early next week.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms expected to
  arrive by next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through this 
afternoon/early evening along with a few showers and possibly 
thunderstorms. Convective energy continues to look quite limited 
but given the significant shear and a brief uptick in DCAPE, if 
any stronger storms are able to develop there continues to be a 
marginal threat of damaging winds especially across portions of SW
VA and NE TN. 

Cooler and drier air will push in behind the front for Thursday and 
Thursday night. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower to mid 40s 
for most folks, but a few may see upper 30s. 

Upper level ridging will build in Friday, setting the stage for a 
strong warm up. Temperatures by the weekend into early next week 
will be well above normal, and high temperatures will flirt with 90 
across portions of the valley during the Sunday through Tuesday time 
frame.  It looks mostly dry for Friday through early next week. Weak 
short wave energy does slide by to our north and this may bring a 
few showers or storms Saturday mainly northern areas, although 
models continue to trend drier for our area. 

The next front is forecast to be approaching by the end of the 
period although timing is quite uncertain that far out.  With the 
expected approach of the front, chances for showers and storms will 
increase a bit for Tuesday and more significantly for Wednesday. 


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some broken VFR cigs are building overnight, but will remain VFR
through the morning. Showers ahead of a cold front will enter the
TN Valley this afternoon, mainly affecting TYS and TRI. Chances of
MVFR vis look around 30% at both sites. Winds increase and become
gusty this afternoon. Winds shift to NW behind the front in the
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             53  74  47  81 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  71  45  78 /  20   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       49  71  44  78 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  66  41  74 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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