945 
FXUS64 KMRX 070650
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026
 
- Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered this afternoon 
  and evening.

- Drier conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered
  to widespread showers and storms possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The cold front has finally moved through the region and is over 
northern MS/AL/GA. Currently, a ridge is centered over the Great 
Plains and a trough is over the Northeast. The ridge will build into 
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today as the trough exits the East 
Coast. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today (although still very 
warm) with highs in the Tennessee Valley mainly in the upper 80s. 
Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered this afternoon 
mainly along and south of I-40 as an inverted surface trough forms 
over Kentucky and Tennessee. SPC has general thunder for that area 
and that seems appropriate.

Tuesday will be dry and a bit warmer with the ridge now centered 
closer to the region over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Wednesday 
will also be dry and warm but the ridge begins to flatten as a broad 
trough moves into the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the upper 80s 
and lower 90s which is a few degrees above normal.

Confidence is increasing for scattered to widespread showers and 
storms Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through the Ohio 
Valley. A cold front will also move through the region around 
Thursday night and may stall a bit to the south causing showers to 
linger into Friday.

The weekend looks to start off with a weak trough possibly bringing 
shower and storm activity Saturday before a weak ridge on Sunday 
leads to drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid to high clouds at all terminals this morning following the
frontal passage. CONTD the inherited BR line at TRI this morning.
Guidance does pinpoint at MVFR CIG there for a couple of hours 
after sunrise. ISOLD to SCTD shower and storm development later 
today, primarily the best chance at TYS and CHA. Winds will be 
light and variable at times with a general NE to SE direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  70  91  69 /  30  20   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  66  90  66 /  40   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  66  89  66 /  40  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  61  86  61 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS


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