ACUS02 KWNS 100547
SWODY2
SPC AC 100545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and
destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of
damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern
Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds of 60-80+ kt. Elsewhere,  northwest flow pattern
will prevail in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a
series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.

At the surface, low pressure initially over north-central KS
Thursday morning will develop into central lower MI by Thursday
night. The surface low will be developing along a composite
outflow-warm front that will be rapidly lifting north through the
Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front
will advance southeast through the lower MO and mid MS Valleys, with
the southwestward extension of the boundary settling south into the
southern Plains.

...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and
upper Great Lakes...

There is good model agreement that a cluster of severe storms,
including supercells, will be ongoing at 12z Thursday across the mid
MO Valley, immediately northeast of the surface low and within a
zone of strong, low-level warm advection. The early-day storms are
expected to grow upscale into an organized MCS with embedded
supercell and bowing structures across IA by mid to late morning
amidst a rapidly destabilizing air mass, which will be coincident
with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, the potential
for tornadoes (some strong) and corridors of destructive winds in
excess of 75 mph is expected to increase significantly during the
morning. The intensifying MCS and its related destructive wind and
tornado threat is expected to move into southern WI and northern IL
by early to mid afternoon, and eventually into lower MI by late
afternoon into evening.

An additional wave of supercells and/or bowing structures is
expected to develop along the trailing outflow from the lead MCS, as
well as along the cold front from eastern IA and northern IL into
the mid MS Valley during the afternoon into evening. Those storms
will be capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds with significant gusts, which could become widespread should
storm mode transition to a bowing line.

...Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon
along the cold front amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air
mass. The models indicate the strongest deep-layer shear remaining
within the post-frontal environment. Nonetheless, there is some
signal for 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear to cross the eastern KS
and western MO segment of the front at an oblique angle, which will
be supportive of supercell storm modes with a risk for large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear vectors are
forecast to align largely parallel with the front across the
southern Plains, which may contribute to downshear storm seeding,
leading to more messy modes. Nonetheless, the degree of instability
will favor vigorous up/downdrafts capable of large hail and damaging winds.

...Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians...

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s are
expected to yield a weakly capped and moderate to strongly unstable
afternoon air mass. Forcing for ascent associated with the
disturbances mentioned in the synopsis are expected to foster
multiple clusters of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds,
especially if organized cold pools can develop. There is some model
signal that a corridor of slightly stronger low-level and deep-layer
shear will materialize across the lower Hudson Valley Thursday
afternoon, which would support some potential for supercells capable
of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

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