687 
FXUS64 KMRX 141037 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Warm up for the weekend into early next week with 
highs around 10 degrees above normal.

- Dry airmass for Thursday and Friday will produce low afternoon 
relative humidity.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrive next 
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Cold front has pushed through most of the region with drier airmass 
moving into the southern Appalachians. 

For Thursday, dry northwest winds around the back side of a deep 
upper trough over the eastern seaboard will produce mostly sunny sky.
Pressure gradients will remain fairly tight so northerly winds 
gusting up to 20 mph. The dry airmass will produce low afternoon 
relative humidity in the upper 20s and 30s.

For Friday, the upper flow will become more zonal with heights and 
temperatures moderating. Moderating temperatures and continued dry 
airmass with surface ridging over the area will produce low 
afternoon relative humidity in the 20s.

Ensemble cluster analysis are in agreement with a deepending upper 
trough across the Great Basin into the high plains. This trough will 
strengthen the upper ridge over the southeast United States into the 
Appalachians allowing for a warm up into the weekend and early next 
week. Continued surface ridging into across the southeast will keep 
Gulf moisture return limited. Mostly dry and unseasonably warm 
conditions are anticipated for Saturday through Monday. Highs will 
be around 10 degrees above normal.

For Tuesday through Thursday, upper flow becomes more west southwest 
and surface ridge weakens allowing for greater moisture return. A 
series of short-waves/jet streaks will move along the upper flow to 
produce an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
Confidence is low in coverage but expect greatest probability across 
the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period, with winds around 10 kt today.
CHA may have some gusts near 20 kt this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  47  81  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  45  78  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  44  78  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  41  74  50 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


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