215 
FXUS64 KMRX 101808
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
208 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- A front arrives on Friday, and should spark off plenty of
  showers and thunderstorms. A few of these could produce some
  damaging winds, mainly north of the I-40 corridor.

- Persistent hot and muggy conditions continue through Friday
  before that cold front moves through and gives a break in the
  humidity for part of the weekend.

- The first half of next week looks unsettled, with multiple
  rounds of heavy rains possible. Details are uncertain as to
  whether there's a risk of flooding at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

In general, there are two primary concerns for the next 7 days.
The first is the potential for some severe storms capable of
damaging winds on Friday. And the second is going to be the first
half of next week when a wet pattern sets up across the southeast
United States and brings with it several periods of heavy rain. 

For the rest of today and tomorrow, upper ridging will largely
suppress convection. Terrain induced convection, as is occurring
in the southern plateau, the Smokies, and parts of our Virginia
counties, will likely occur again tomorrow afternoon. But
otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions. Like today, tomorrow will
be another hot and muggy day. Undercut NBM dewpoints a bit today
and tomorrow to lower afternoon heat indexes, but these were minor
changes...limiting dewpoints to 72-73 degrees verses the roughly
75 degree max dewpoints in the NBM. Resulting heat indexes remain
in the mid 90s which is reasonable.

Thursday night into Friday a potent shortwave will lift northeast
from the central plains into the western Great Lakes region. This
will push a front our direction on Friday. Models show convection
firing up during peak heating in the vicinity of the plateau and
southeast Kentucky before shifting east and expanding in coverage
through the afternoon and evening hours. While better shear will
exist further to our north, closer to the parent shortwave, the
instability present should make up for the lacking shear in terms
of severe chances. Forecast MLCAPE values in excess of 1,500 -
2,000 J/kg are not uncommon on Friday, both spatially across our 
forecast area and in terms of being present in multiple guidance 
sources. Overall, it looks favorable to see some strong to severe
storms capable of damaging winds. Doesn't look like a widespread 
severe weather event, but I would not be surprised at all for 
there to be a few warnings issued.

Behind the front we'll get a brief reprieve in the humidity as dry
air filters in from the north Saturday and Sunday. Then attention
turns to next week which could prove quite wet. Behind the Friday
shortwave upper flow becomes zonal across much of the CONUS
through the weekend, with broad high pressure across the Gulf
states. Early next week however, the upper ridge shifts back off
the east coast of Florida while upper troughing sets up over the
western CONUS while a front approaches from the Midwest and stalls
out somewhere near the Appalachians and TN Valley. This will
produce persistent southwest flow overhead for much of the first
half of the week, with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected. It's too early to get concerned about this
just yet, but we'll need to monitor this closely in the coming
days as this type of pattern could produce some flooding issues.
As always though, details aren't certain just yet and those
details will matter a great deal so just keep an eye on the
forecast for the time being.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR flight categories should prevail through the period. ISOLD
SHRA and possibly even a TSRA or two, will be present mainly in
the higher terrain both this afternoon and tomorrow as well, but
they shouldn't affect any terminals. There's a hint of MVFR CIGS
in some of the guidance again tonight, but I'm not confident
enough to include them right now. Did put a SCT015 in at KTRI
to hedge that direction though. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  92  72  91 /   0  10   0  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  92  73  91 /   0  10   0  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  91  71  90 /   0  10  10  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  90  69  90 /  20  20  20  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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