075 
FXUS64 KMRX 141822
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
222 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Chilly tonight,then a warming trend with very warm conditions 
  by Sunday through early next week.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrives by the 
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

We start the period with an upper trough centered to our east and
a ridge to our west. After a cool afternoon today, tonight will 
see temperatures dip into the lower to mid 40s in most locations 
and a few spots may see lows in the upper 30s. Friday will be a 
bit warmer with highs not far from seasonal normals. Also, 
relative humidity values will be quite low Friday afternoon.


Upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS through the weekend 
and into early next week bringing a significant warm up for our 
area, and continued surface ridging across the southeast will keep 
Gulf moisture return limited. Mostly dry and very warm conditions 
are anticipated for Saturday through Tuesday. High temperatures will 
make a run at 90 degrees across much of the valley during the Sunday 
through Tuesday time frame, and may reach or exceed 90 in some 
locations. There may be enough moisture return by Tuesday for a few 
showers or storms in the afternoon, especially over the terrain. 

By Wednesday and Thursday models show the upper ridge weakening and 
moisture increasing over the region. While the details are uncertain 
that far out models generally show some short wave energy moving 
through and a weak cold front sagging slowly toward the area from 
the north and northwest, leading to an increase in coverage of 
showers and storms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Possible fog development toward sunrise especially TRI is the only
concern, but right now the probability of restricted visibility 
looks too low to warrant inclusion. Will have a VFR forecast for 
the period all sites. Winds will be north and northwest around 
10kts to start, then will generally be light after sunset this 
evening. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             47  80  55  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  45  78  54  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       43  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              40  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)