093 
FXUS64 KMRX 080706
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
 
- Dry conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms possible Thursday and
  Friday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The inverted surface trough that helped spark some showers in our 
southern half on Monday will be pushed away to the NW as high 
pressure over the Mid Atlantic moves southward to the Outer Banks. 
Aloft, a 500 mb ridge will reestablish itself over the region today, 
leading to dry conditions across the area through Wednesday, with 
above normal temperatures.

The midlevel ridge gets suppressed southward on Thursday as a broad, 
positively-tilted trough drops into the Great Lakes region. 
Convection along the associated cold front will move across KY 
Thursday, possibly reaching our KY border counties by late 
afternoon. With the front remaining to our north, along with the 
midlevel vort max and upper jet streak, convection will likely be 
weakening as it moves into our area in the evening along a pre-
frontal trough or outflow boundary. Instability is not particularly 
impressive, so the potential for any strong to severe storms looks 
low at this time. The nearly zonal midlevel flow parallels the 
surface front, so it will likely stall to our north. The position of 
the front with weak troughing to our west will keep some scattered 
to numerous in the area through Friday. 

The weekend looks to start off with a weak trough over the MS River 
possibly bringing shower and storm activity Saturday. A building 
ridge across the Southeast may bring a drier pattern next week, with 
temperatures continuing above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Dry weather can be anticipated through the TAF term. Because of
recorded precipitation at TYS yesterday, there is a chance of fog
that will be monitored. Otherwise, mid to high clouds, winds 
light and variable at times with a general E to SE direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  60  87  64 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


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