797 
FXUS64 KMRX 111054
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Showers and storms most likely remain confined to higher terrain 
today. Hot and humid conditions can be expected.

- Potentially strong cold front arrives tomorrow during the 
afternoon and evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail the main 
concerns.

- Unsettled weather continues into next week, with multiple rounds
  of rainfall possible. Cooler temperatures to start the new work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A hot and yucky summer day can be expected later today under sharp 
ridging punching in overhead and W-SW flow continually bringing in 
the increased water vapor. Heat indices in the valley could range 
from the mid to upper 90s, with possible 100 degrees sneaking in 
somewhere. It'll be a dry day for most, with the potential for any 
shower and storm activity to be confined to the Southern 
Appalachians, southwest NC, and into southwest VA. Your typical 
summer time forcing near/in mountainous terrain.

Tomorrow will be another sticky and hot day, however, temperatures 
may end up a degree or more "cooler" with cloud cover and 
precipitation timing out around the time of peak heating. At the 
time of this discussion, the Day 3 Convective Outlook from SPC 
extends MRGL to SLGT into our area from the Virginias coinciding 
with a cold front expected to arrive much earlier now than 
previously mentioned. 24 hours ago and beyond, the front appeared to 
arrive during the overnight hours into early Saturday, but it may 
just cross the region during the "best" time for strongest 
thunderstorm potential. One parameter for all of the ingredients 
needed for severe weather is lacking though. Moisture is of course 
there, the cold front is your forcing, and instability will be up 
there with CAPE values in the 2000 to 3000+ J/Kg range. Shear, 
however, is the factor that is very low. So, a high CAPE low shear 
type set-up. The potential for strongest severe will be from about 
the Mid-Atlantic up into the northeast US. Right now, damaging wind 
gusts and hail are the main concerns. Mid-level lapse rates, 
according to some 00z runs, will be in the neighborhood of 6.5 to 
just under 7 C/Km.

Things clear the area late Friday into early Saturday. Highs will 
fall below 90 degrees, but the nasty dew points will at least be at 
bay for one day, with dew points in the 60s and even 50s for 
northeastern parts of the CWA. On the temperature side of things, 
highs will just continue to fall until the end of the forecast 
period. Monday through Wednesday highs could only max out to the 
upper 70s to low 80s! Unfortunately, following the cold front, we 
will not dry out like you'd typically expect. Moisture sets back up 
arcing along a boundary, potentially bringing heavy rains some place 
early next week. The Day 5 ERO from WPC issued yesterday afternoon, 
introduced a MRGL threat for flash flooding for parts of our area. 
Details are uncertain to what may occur, but grand total forecast 
QPF from Sunday until Wednesday, could bring multiple inches of rain 
with highest possible amounts south of about I-40 and Knoxville.
.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Some lower clouds are in place over TRI, but VFR is expected to
continue at the site, as well as the other two. Cloud cover will
be more limited throughout the day. Winds will be generally from
the southwest to the west at 10 kts or less. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  73  91  71 /  10   0  60  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  73  91  69 /   0   0  80  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  71  90  66 /   0   0  80  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              91  70  90  65 /  20  10  80  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)