429 
FXUS64 KMRX 150551
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
151 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- A warming trend with very warm conditions Sunday through early 
  next week. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. 

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrives by the 
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Main weather feature for Friday into early next week will be a 
building upper ridge over the southeast United States. 

For Friday and Saturday, surface ridging over the southeast United 
and southern Appalachians will keep moisture return limited. The dry 
airmass and warmer temperatures will produce low afternoon relative 
humidity in the 20s and lower 30s today and 30s for Saturday.

For Sunday, surface ridging weakens allowing for return of some 
boundary layer moisture into the southern Appalachians. 
Deterministic GFS is quite bullish for diurnal terrain convection 
but ensembles say differently. Given the drought conditions, low 
confidence of convection returning and will follow the drier 
ensemble solutions. 

For Monday and Tuesday, upper ridge builds more into the southern 
Appalachians helping to suppress convective development and 
producing unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 
degrees above normal.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a good deal of uncertainty as upper 
ridge weakens due to a series of short-waves/jet streaks moving 
across the mid-section of the nation into the Great Lakes and Ohio 
valley. A frontal boundary will move into the Tennessee valley. Some 
of the models keep this boundary over the area maintaining a 
continued chance of convection, while the ECMWF shows the front 
moving south of the area by Thursday. Ensembles keep a chance of 
showers and thunderstorms going for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Potentially some fog early this morning near KTRI, with current 
observations very close to saturation already. Uncertain on fog 
formation though, so left it as a MVFR TEMPO and will metwatch. 
Otherwise VFR TAFs with generally light winds underneath high 
pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  55  85  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  54  85  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  53  84  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  50  82  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


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