ACUS02 KWNS 080515
SWODY2
SPC AC 080513

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Wednesday. Stronger deep-layer flow will be focused
across the Great Lakes and Northeast, to the north of a corridor of
modest instability. As a surface cold front develops southeast
toward the Ohio Valley and western NY during the evening, isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development is expected. While modest
instability will limit a more substantial severe risk, stronger
deep-layer flow will support sporadic strong gusts.

...Central Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

Stronger instability is forecast within a moist and hot airmass from
KS to the Lower MO and Lower OH Valleys Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This area will remain well south of strong westerly flow
aloft associated with the Great Lake upper trough, resulting in
modest vertical shear, especial across KS. Despite modest shear,
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 amid steeper low and midlevel lapse rates
will support some risk of strong to severe convection. Storms
developing along a surface boundary will mainly pose a risk for
damaging gusts. Where marginally stronger shear will be located
across the Lower MO Valley vicinity, small hail could also occur
with the strongest updrafts.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

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