AWUS01 KWNH 110905
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-111504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Nebraska into
southern Iowa and far northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110904Z - 111504Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall,
with pronounced local training expected to continue.  Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion....Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an east-west
oriented band of deep convection extending along I-80 from near
Lexington to near Lincoln.  The storms have formed on the nose of
a strong southerly low-level jet, which has increased to around 55
knots over the past couple hours over much of Kansas. 
Additionally, the storms are focused along a moist axis, with PW
values extending from near 1.25-1.75 along I-80 (highest with
eastward extent.  Steep mid-level lapse rates aloft (around 8C/km)
were supporting robust, intense updrafts, while pronounced
training was also noted due to storm motions parallel to the axis
of initiation.  This has fostered development of 1+ inch/hr rain
rates in several spots per MRMS.

The ongoing scenario supporting flash flooding should continue for
several hours while translating quickly eastward into southern
Iowa through 12-14Z (7-9am central).  Storm motions are relatively
fast (around 40-45 knots), but pronounced training should enable
development of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates to continue at times along
the convective band as long as storms don't grow upscale into
bowing/linear segments too aggressively.  FFG thresholds are
around 1.5 inch/hr areawide, but drop some to around 1 inch/hr in
southwestern/southern Iowa (locally lower) where copious amounts
of antecedent rainfall have been observed recently and soils are
wet.  At least isolated instances of flash flooding are expected
as this convective band continues to evolve through 15Z/10a central.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42119658 42089443 41909298 41419216 40789201 
            40439287 40119614 40169978 41269982 41629906 
            
$$
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