ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and
southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging
damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain
West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across
the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly
flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting
northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the
period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all
hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota
continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front
through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for
severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western
Kansas into western Oklahoma.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of
Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe
hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across
much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep
layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly
across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern
Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of
all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual
upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A
strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may
support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be strong.

...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma...

A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline
into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some
signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the
dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally
favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado
or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

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 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)