Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 09 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 11 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Wednesday and the Ohio Valley on Thursday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Thursday...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains and
then westward to the Great Basin will move eastward to the Northeast, then
into the Ohio Valley and then into the Southern Plains by Thursday
evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Great
Lakes to the Central/Southern Rockies, then move eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and into the Central Southern
Plains by Thursday. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains on Wednesday into Thursday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.
In addition, on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain over parts of the Southwest.  Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on
Wednesday into Thursday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.
Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along and
ahead of the boundary from parts of the Northeast to the Central/Southern
Plains. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians.  Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on
Thursday.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Southeast Coast to parts
of the Middle and Western Gulf Coast through Thursday evening. Elsewhere,
on Thursday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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