867 
FXUS64 KMRX 081851
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
251 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
 
- Mostly dry conditions through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous 
  showers and storms possible at times Thursday evening through 
  Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

An anomalous upper level ridge continues to build into the region 
this afternoon. H5 heights near 595 dam will translate to above 
normal temperatures - about 5 degrees above normal per early 
September standards. Surface high pressure will keep the area mostly 
dry, though  a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out in the high 
terrain. This pattern will continue into Wednesday. 

By Thursday an upper level trough and associated jet is expected to 
dip into the Great Lakes region. An accompanying cold front will 
provide an axis of forcing leading to a return of shower and storm 
chances by Thursday evening and night. Chances for precip will 
generally be greatest north of I-40 during this time. 

While the aforementioned jet will depart east, additional impulses 
and associated vorticity maxima will swing through the southern 
Appalachians Friday and Saturday, all while the frontal boundary 
lingers across the region. This will maintain daily chances for 
showers and storms. Per latest RRFS and NAM12, may have to keep an 
eye on Friday for a low potential of isolated strong storms. 
Latest soundings from these models suggest MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, effective
shear near 20kts, and mid-level lapse rates near 6.

A transition to quasi-zonal flow is expected Sunday. While not 
totally dry, a lesser coverage of precip chances is expected. This 
will continue to be the case into the new work week as additional 
shortwave ridging builds atop the southern Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions with light winds and SCT/BKN mid to high level
clouds this afternoon. Patchy fog is expected across the valley 
tonight, but confidence in any impacts to a terminal are too low
to include at this time. Conditions will remain VFR tomorrow
afternoon with light winds from the S/SW. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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