952 
FXUS64 KMRX 151831
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- A warming trend is expected with highs rising well into the 80s 
to around 90 by Sunday into early next week. 

- The next widespread chances for showers and storms returns by
  the middle of next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Currently this afternoon, a trough/closed low is located to our 
northeast with high pressure centered over the southeast. This 
will promote a continuation of dry conditions with recent height 
rises allowing for the beginning of a warming trend. On Saturday, 
the Bermuda High will strengthen to our east, leading to 
increasing southerly flow and highs reaching well into the 80s 
across the region. Rain chances approach from the north due to the
jet over the Great Lakes, but our region still looks to stay dry.
By Sunday, ridging will increase across the eastern U.S. ahead of
deepening troughing in the Rockies and a developing surface low. 
This will lead to further height rises and temperatures likely 
approaching 90 degrees for most valley locations. With some 
increase in moisture, isolated diurnal convection is possible 
along the mountains, but most places are likely to remain dry. 

By Monday, the system to the northwest will advance into the 
Great Plains, leading to a further increase in southerly flow for 
the eastern U.S. 500mb heights will reach 5,880 to 5,900 meters, 
typical of July. This makes the case for most of the region to 
reach or exceed the 90-degree mark. By Tuesday, the Great Plains 
system will track up into Canada with a frontal boundary setting 
up to the west. As this frontal boundary approaches later in the 
week, rain chances will increase locally. Currently, the 
environment looks to be typical of the summer with limited shear 
and marginal instability. At a minimum, hopefully much needed rain
is received by some, but drought is likely to worsen with the heat 
beforehand.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Limited cloud cover and southerly to southwesterly winds are
expected for the rest of the day. Overnight, winds will become
light and variable with cloud cover increasing around 10,000 to
15,000 feet AGL. Fog is currently not anticipated. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  86  63  90 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  86  62  90 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  82  57  87 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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