Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 11 2026

...Heavy rain and severe weather threats will spread from the Midwest this
morning to interior New England tonight...

...Persistent heat across the south-central U.S. is forecast to get a
break on Thursday....

...Showers and thunderstorms will stretch across the Central Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days with locally heavy rain across
the central Appalachians on Thursday...

A large high-pressure system sliding off the East Coast will give way to
an expanding and intensifying low pressure system currently tracking east
across southern Canada. The recent episode of fine and cool late-summer
weather will give way to a resurgence of heat across much of the eastern
U.S. Meanwhile, the cyclone in southern Canada will sweep a cold front
through the northern tier states over the next couple of days. Areas of
heavy rain and severe weather threats near and ahead of the front will
spread from the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes this morning to interior
New England by tonight. As the frontal system pushes against the
persistent heat dome across the South, expect a stretch of showers and
thunderstorms from the Central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic over the
next couple of days. Locally heavy rain is possible across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley today, followed by the central Appalachians on
Thursday when a couple of low pressure waves form along the front losing
forward momentum. This front will also break the unrelenting heatwave
across the south-central U.S. by Thursday, bringing clouds, occasional
rain, and some embedded thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will continue to support mainly late-day
showers and thunderstorms across Arizona and New Mexico. Some
thunderstorms with heavy rain will also extend north into Colorado today
in connection with the southern end of the frontal system trailing from
the Canadian cyclone. WPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico
for today into this evening. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will linger across the Southeast U.S.
closer to the coast and including Florida near a dissipating front. On the
opposite side of the country, fine and dry weather will prevail across the
Northwest before the next chance of showers reaches the Pacific Northwest
by Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.


Kong/Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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