578 
FXUS64 KMRX 160719
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
319 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- Unseasonably very warm temperatures are in the offing for this weekend
  through early next week. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above 
  normal especially for Sunday through Tuesday.

- The next widespread chance for showers and storms returns for
  mid-week next week. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Main weather feature for this weekend into early next week will be 
an upper ridge over the southeast United States into the southern 
Appalachians. Main impact will be unseasonably very warm 
temperatures especially for Sunday through Tuesday. Highs will be 10 
to 15 degrees above normal.

Deterministic GFS continues to show scattered convection across the 
terrain features for Sunday. Due to continued surface ridging into 
the southeast United States and drought conditions, moisture return 
will be slow and feel NBM dewpoints/RH are too high.  Given the 
expected drier environment GFS QPF is likely way overdone. Ensemble 
QPF also shows a drier bias with the storms Sunday. Overall, dry 
conditions will prevail through Tuesday. 

A deeper upper trough will move into the mid-section of the nation 
by Wednesday helping to flatten the upper ridge over the region. A 
frontal boundary will also approach the Tennessee valley by late in 
the day Wednesday. These features will help to increase chances of 
showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Ensemble mean CAPE suggest values of 1000-1500 but shear is quite 
limited. Overall, instability parameters and shear do not look 
favorable for severe storms. 

For Thursday and Friday, the coverage of showers and storms will be 
dependent on how fast frontal boundary pulls south of the region. 
Currently, ensemble shows this boundary slowly pulling southward 
keeping scattered coverage of convection. Instability will be 
limited with values of 500 or less.

Overall QPF amounts for mid to late next week is between 0.25 and 
0.5 inch which will do limited help with ongoing drought
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR and dry weather to continue the next 24 hours. Fog is not
expected early this morning. A few gusts to 15 knots this
afternoon at TYS under southwest flow. Otherwise winds will
generally be light and follow normal diurnal trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  62  90  65 /   0   0  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  61  90  65 /   0   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  60  89  63 /   0   0  10  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  57  87  60 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


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