671 
FXUS64 KMRX 121055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely today. Damaging winds
  are the most likely hazard, with potential for significant wind.
  Hail and flash flooding are lower, secondary risks.

- Unsettled and uncertain weather pattern over the next week, but
  likely a couple of dry days, too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast through this 
morning as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. A broad trough 
will settle into the Midwest and Ohio Valley by this afternoon as 
the ridge over the Southeast weakens. At the surface, a weak cold 
front will move through the region this evening. CAMs are in good 
agreement that storms will develop ahead of the cold front this 
afternoon during max heating. Storms will develop around 2 PM EDT in 
the Cumberland Plateau and extreme Southeast Kentucky or Southwest 
Virginia. Storms will likely start as single cell or cluster but may 
become more linear in the late afternoon or evening. Instability 
will be high with dew points in the mid 70s and CAPE around 2000 to 
3000 J/kg. HREF ensemble guidance keeps the highest CAPE along and 
west of I-75. Mid level lapse rates will be around 7 C/kg and low 
level lapse rates will be around 8 C/kg. 

The main threat will be gusty straight-line winds with DCAPE values 
in the 1000 to 1300 J/kg range. Tornado potential will be very low 
with effective shear less than 20 knots and 0-1 km shear less than 
10 knots. Some hail around one inch may be possible in the strongest 
storms but with a freezing level around 15k feet, large hail is not 
likely. 

Some localized flooding will be possible in storms that are slow 
moving or training. PWATs will be around 1.8 to 2 inches. Overall 
the flooding threat seems low outside of the usual flood prone spots 
like urban areas.

Rain chances are low for Saturday behind the cold front. 
Temperatures and dew points will be slightly lower. The wet pattern 
returns on Sunday and may continue into early next week as a broad 
trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by Monday. The GFS 
has higher rain chances than the ECMWF in the Monday, Tuesday, 
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A few gusts to near 20 knots at TRI under good mixing conditions
later today. Otherwise still expecting scattered showers and TS
late this afternoon through early evening. Adding prevailing VCSH
into the TYS and TRI TAFs in acknowledgement of forecast
persistence. Weather will turn quiet again by or shortly after 3z
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  72  90  72 /  50  20  20  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  70  89  70 /  70  40   0  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  68  89  69 /  80  30  10  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              91  67  88  65 /  70  40  10  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


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