894 
FXUS64 KMRX 090631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
 
- Dry conditions are expected today. Scattered to numerous showers and
  storms will be possible Thursday evening into the overnight 
  hours in the northern half of the region.

- Friday, Saturday and Sunday will have scattered showers and storms 
  possible areawide mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

In the upper levels, the ridge over the Southeast starts to flatten 
today as a broad trough moves into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. At 
the surface, a cold front will be over the Ohio Valley tonight. Dry 
weather will continue today through Thursday afternoon. Thursday 
evening and into the overnight hours, showers and storms will 
increase, mainly in the northern third of the region as a decaying 
cold front slowly moves down from the north. A minor shortwave 
moving through the pattern may also enhance activity. Perhaps a few 
strong storms can't be ruled out in the evening hours but overall 
instability will be decreasing significantly if this timing holds. 

Daily rain chances are expected mainly in the afternoon and evening 
hours from Friday through the weekend possibly into early next week. 
In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow will be in place with minor 
short waves moving through the pattern at times. The weak surface 
boundary will also be lingering over or near the region through the 
weekend. Showers and storms will likely be scattered at times. NBM 
has the highest chances on Saturday afternoon. 

Early next week, a ridge will be over the Southeast. Isolated to 
scattered showers and storms will be possible with the highest 
chances in and near the terrain. Afternoon highs will be above 
normal throughout the forecast period with upper 80s expected near 
Tri-Cities and lower 90s for Knoxville and Chattanooga areas, 
generally about 6 to 8 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Main concern is the potential of fog development at TRI. Steam fog
off Boone Lake is possible. Confidence is too low to include but
will monitor for possible development. VFR conditions are 
expected throughout the forecast period. Ridging surface and aloft
will keep conditions dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  68  92  70 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  67  91  68 /   0   0   0  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)