985 
FXUS64 KMRX 202318 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

-Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm conditions through Saturday, 
cold Sunday and Monday, and then likely mild again for mid week.

-Quick shot of light snow Sunday morning, then a break Sunday 
afternoon. Then northwest flow snowfall Sunday night into Monday. 
Light snowfall accumulations possible in the higher elevations of 
the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential 
for low elevation flurries. 

-Gusty winds Sunday through Monday for all locations. Gusts to 40 
mph in the mountains and 20 to 30 mph in the valley.

-Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
 Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of the
 southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Additional showers spread into the area overnight from south to 
north. A few rumbles of thunder are possible due to some very minor 
amounts of elevated instability. No impacts expected. We see a brief 
break in the rain Saturday afternoon before additional precip moves 
back in Saturday night into Sunday. Rain changes to snow late 
Saturday night into Sunday morning before precip exits east by late 
Sunday morning. The mountains of southwest VA, northeast TN, and the 
east TN mountains may see some light snow accumulations, generally 
less than 0.5 inches. 1 to 3 inches are possible across our highest 
elevations, above 5000 to 6000 feet. The lower elevations of southwest VA 
and northeast TN will see some snow flying around as well but little 
to no accumulation is expected. Minor travel impacts possible across 
the aforementioned higher elevations Sunday morning. 

We see a break in the precip Sunday afternoon before additional 
moisture wraps into the area around the backside of an east coast 
system. This is when northwest flow becomes firmly established 
across the area. Sunday night through Monday expect additional light 
snowfall accumulations across the same mountainous locations as 
previously mentioned. During this timeframe, an additional 1 to 2 
inches of snowfall is possible, with isolated higher amounts across 
the highest elevations. Some lower elevation locations across 
southwest VA and northeast TN may see a dusting to a few tenths of 
an inch. NBM POPs and QPF during this timeframe were/are way too low 
for this type of event. Minor travel impacts expected during this 
timeframe across the higher elevations. 

Additionally, gusty winds will also be in place Sunday through 
Monday for all locations. Roughly 30kts of 850mb flow out of the 
northwest will translate to wind gusts to around 40 mph across the 
higher elevations. Good mixing at the surface, as indicated by the 
inverted v soundings, mean valley locations will see gusty winds as 
well, generally between 20 to 30 mph.

Because of the colder air moving in, and gusty winds, Wind Chills in 
the single digits to below zero are expected Sunday through Monday 
across the higher elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and 
southwest NC mountains. 

We dry out on Tuesday and milder temperatures return. The warming 
trend continues thereafter but so do increasing chances of rain and 
storms from Wednesday and beyond. The best chances for widespread 
rainfall look to occur between Thursday and Thursday night, where 
another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is possible across our area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Gusty wind are tapering off with sunset. Overnight, rain will 
begin to fall from a midlevel cloud deck, not impacting TAF sites
until lat in the night as low levels moisten. Even then expect low
VFR cigs and 6SM vis, with CHA being a possible exception to have
MVFR vis/cigs. Precip should exit by noon, with cigs remaining
broken at low VFR levels. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             48  66  34  47 /  70  20  30  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  61  35  42 /  50  20  40  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  62  34  42 /  40  20  40  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              42  58  34  39 /  30  20  60  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


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