393 
FXUS64 KMRX 161831
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- Very warm temperatures are expected the rest of this weekend into 
this upcoming week. Many places will reach near 90 degrees Sunday 
through Tuesday. 

- More widespread chances for showers and storms return Wednesday
  through Friday with temperatures back closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Currently this afternoon, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with 
embedded shortwaves aloft and troughing over the Rockies. The upper 
jet is over the Great Lakes with the Bermuda High strengthening to 
our east. This has promoted increasing southerly flow and the 
continuation of dry and warmer temperatures. With better moisture 
and upper-level flow, convection will continue to our north but 
remaining dry in our area. On Sunday, troughing to the west will 
advance through the Rockies, leading to increasing ridging in the 
eastern U.S. 500mb heights will rise to 5,860m, near the normals for 
summer, pushing high temperatures near 90 across many places. 

On Monday, troughing will eject out of the Rockies with an initial 
surface low tracking up into Canada. This will soon be followed by a 
secondary low that tracks into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. As 
moisture remains limited in our area, most places will stay dry on 
both days, outside of isolated diurnal convection along the higher 
terrain. The continued southerly flow and height rises will keep 
temperatures near 90 degrees for many areas. 

More widespread rain chances return by Wednesday as the front 
associated with the secondary low approaches from the northwest, in 
addition to moisture advection. With the front indicated to linger 
around the region, off and on showers and storms will continue 
through the end of the week. There is uncertainty as to how far 
south the front will progress, which would impact the coverage and 
overall rain totals. But, hopefully this pattern can provide 
desperately-needed rain with the environment not supportive of 
anything too organized in our area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions and southwesterly winds are expected for the rest
of the day. Winds will become light and variable overnight with
some high clouds and no fog expected. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  90  65  89 /   0  10  10  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  90  65  90 /   0  10   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  89  63  89 /   0  10  10  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  87  60  90 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)