412 
FXUS64 KMRX 130547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Today will be mostly dry with very low rain chances mainly in the 
  south and higher terrain of Tennessee and North Carolina.

- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few of these
  storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the 
  primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for 
  showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into 
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern 
U.S. At the surface, the cold front is weak and it is difficult to 
place but it looks to be near Southwest Virginia and Northeast 
Tennessee stretching back toward Crossville. This front is stalling 
and hasn't moved much in the last few hours. By this 
afternoon/evening the front will likely be stalled near the 
Georgia/Tennessee border. Showers and thunderstorms will be very 
isolated this afternoon and evening with the best chances in the 
south and the higher terrain of Tennessee and North Carolina.

High rain chances return on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold 
front moves through the region. SPC does not have us outlooked in a 
severe threat yet but with CAPE around 2k to 3k J/kg expected during 
max heating it seems like there will be at least a marginal threat 
for some severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds. 
The freezing level will be high around 15k feet making large hail 
difficult to achieve. 

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by 
Monday. The NBM has low rain chances Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early 
next week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler 
with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Rain chances increase on 
Thursday as another system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Patchy fog possible over the next 6 hours, but low confidence on
where, if any, significant restrictions occur. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected to remain predominant through the period.
A very low (10%) chance for a shower or thunderstorm exists to
day, but too low to include in TAFs. Diurnal winds to remain
generally less than 10 knots, from the W to WSW during the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  72  88  68 /  30  30  90  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  70  86  65 /  20  40 100  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  70  85  64 /  20  50 100  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  66  85  62 /  10  40 100  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


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