MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 091806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091806 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio into northwestern
Pennsylvania and far western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091806Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify
through the afternoon. A few damaging gusts are the main concern,
though a brief tornado may also occur. Some uncertainty remains
regarding how widespread the severe threat will become. Therefore,
convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field with convective showers, just south of
Lake Erie, continues to grow within the warm sector, just south of a
broad precipitation band that is contributing to local
baroclinicity. On the warm side of the baroclinic boundary,
insolation is supporting surface temperatures climbing into the 80s
F, amid 70s F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg in
negligible MLCINH. The current thinking is that storms should
continue to expand in coverage while gradually intensifying. 

A 500 mb jet streak is currently overspreading the Midwest and is
poised to reach the northern Appalachians in approximately 4-6
hours. As this occurs, vertical wind shear will also increase, with
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear expected. When this occurs,
multicells, transient supercells, and short line segments will all
become possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat.
Additionally, storms anchored along the baroclinic boundary may also
produce a brief tornado. Given current shear limitations, it is
unclear if or when a more widespread severe threat will materialize.
Therefore, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/09/2026

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   40748389 42427846 42397750 41887726 41257776 40877890
            40598007 40428101 40398203 40448341 40748389 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

$$

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