AWUS01 KWNH 131111
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0401
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Central Missouri...Far Eastern Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131110Z - 131630Z

SUMMARY...Increasing warm-advective convective coverage of
thunderstorms capable of repeating of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and a
streak or two of 2-3" totals possibly inducing an incident or two
of localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and WV suite depict the older MCS
continuing to rapidly warm across NE OK though providing an
excellent upper-level enhancement to the exiting jet streak (noted
by anticyclonic arched transverse banding cirrus elements over E
KS into N MO).  This right entrance ascent is further aided by
dPVA from the parent shortwave center along/just north of the
older MCS along the KS/OK line.  As a result, low-level
southwesterly boundary layer to mid-level increase in flow
supports a warm-advective regime intersecting a well defined sfc
theta-E gradient/front oriented from NE KS across central MO.  The
strong isentropic ascent/moisture flux convergence has resulted in
multiple break outs of convection across E KS into central MO at
different levels of bases (more elevated toward the northeast). 

Surface or near surface-rooted cells have seen a greater vertical
ascent and rapid cooling in GOES-E 10.3um from Linn county, KS to
Cedar to Wright counties in MO.  Deep layer steering is not super
uniform through depth, so more elevated cells northeast are likely
to trend more eastward, while the surface based cells have more of
a east-southeast to southeast motion.  This would be suggestive of
potential repeating/training especially along the upwind side,
closer to moisture/instability axis.  Downstream across the Ozark
Plateau, the low level moisture and instability are lesser, but
still sufficient for 1.5-1.75"/hr rates.  

Overall, the scattered nature does not appear to have the most
ideal for persistent training but the overall coverage should
allow for some repeating nature to support a few streaks of 2-3"
though the morning hours.  FFG values of 1.5"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs
suggest those areas of repeating have some potential for
exceedance and therefore localized flash flooding is considered
possible.  Irrespective of morning flooding conditions, these
cells will further set the stage and likely reinforce the frontal
zone for later thunderstorm activity capable of additional flash
flooding later this evening/tonight.  So even after this round of
activity it remains prudent to remain weather aware for the
remainder of the day+.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39299328 39099205 38599098 38059051 37249066 
            36659145 36999326 37499455 38089501 38629494 
            39049460 

= = =

AWUS01 KWNH 131144
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-131700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131145Z - 131700Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms capable of 2-3.5" totals moving
out of Sand Hills into lower FFGs suggesting increasing flash
flooding potential over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts overall broad zonal pattern though
with a distinct split jet from northern stream streak over
WY/Dakotas and convectively enhanced streak out of KS/N MO.  RAP
analysis confirms solid divergent pattern to further aid outflow
and maintain updraft strength over the coming hours as the west to
east convective line slides out of the Sand Hills of north-central
Nebraska.   Strong southerly LLJ ascending over frontal zone
generally along the NEB/KS line provided solid speed/mass
convergence to break out strong thunderstorms across the Sand
Hills, but the LLJ is already starting to veer a bit but maintain
30-40kts of inflow.  However, air over NE KS and E Nebraska is
much more conditionally unstable with MUCAPE values in excess of
3500 J/kg due to slightly steeper/drier mid-level profiles to help
maintain the complex as it starts to move over the 500-1000
thickness ridge.   While there is greater mid-level drying, CIRA
LPW denotes the core of the moisture axis remains along the
western edge of the instability axis and given orientation of the
LLJ its proximity will continue to provide the ample moisture flux
to maintain solid heavy rainfall capability.

Regional RADAR denotes, solid hail production given the vigor of
updrafts, but KDP/ZDR trends do support accompanying heavy
rainfall production with rain rates up to 2"/hr locally; this may
be slightly inflated but not significantly so.  So given the
orientation of the convective complex to the deep layer flow and
slight southeastward turning, there is solid signal for increased
duration of heavy rainfall to support 2-3.5" totals as it complex
moves into areas of lower FFG and recent saturated upper-soil
profiles especially in far SE NEB/SW IA and Northeast MO.  FFG
values of 1.5-2"/hr reduce below 1.5" into the Missouri River
Valley proper; though 2-3"/3hr values across much of the area of
concern suggest incidents of flash flooding are clearly possible
this morning.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   42009709 41879592 41439472 40659431 40109481
            40139663 40799832 41299907 41719942 41999891

$$
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