Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 10 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 12 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest and Central High Plains on Wednesday and the Ohio Valley on
Thursday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central/Southern
Plains will move eastward off the Northeast Coast by Thursday evening
while extending westward across the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the
Southern Plains. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from
the Lower Great Lakes to the Central/Southern Plains with a risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through
Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Farther along the front, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains and a
second area over the Central High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and the Central High Plains on Wednesday
into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Southwest on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southwest on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Thursday, the threat of excessive rainfall has moved eastward to parts
of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians through Friday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

A second front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday
morning and move inland to the Upper Midwest, roughly westward to the
Great Basin. The boundary will produce rain over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region early on Friday morning. The rain will expand across
parts of the Northern High Plains on Friday. By Friday evening, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Midwest into the
Central Plains. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
Southwest during the afternoon into the late evening through Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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